OPEC+ approves 188,000 bpd oil output hike for September amid supply disruptions, fully reverses 2023 output cuts
Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) on Sunday (2 August) approved an increase in oil production quotas of around 188,000 barrels per day (bpd) for September, marking the completion of the phased reversal of one layer of voluntary output cuts introduced in 2023.
The decision was taken by the group’s core production management members—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, Kuwait, Algeria, Kazakhstan and Oman. Despite a series of monthly output increases throughout 2026, disruptions to exports from the Gulf, Russia and Kazakhstan caused by the wars involving Iran and Ukraine have meant that much of the additional supply has had only a limited impact on global oil markets.
The September quota increase completes the rollback of the 1.65 million bpd voluntary production cut agreed in 2023, when the United Arab Emirates was still part of the production management arrangement. The UAE exited OPEC in May, leaving the seven core producers to oversee monthly output decisions.
Ahead of the meeting, OPEC delegates had indicated the group was likely to pause further production increases during the fourth quarter of 2026. However, the official statement issued after the meeting made no mention of production plans for the final three months of the year, leaving the group’s next policy direction uncertain.
Separately, OPEC’s Joint Ministerial Monitoring Committee (JMMC) also met on Sunday and reiterated its concern over attacks on energy infrastructure during the U.S.-Israeli conflict with Iran. The committee said damage to oil and energy facilities is expensive and time-consuming to repair, posing risks to global crude supplies https://www.livemint.com/economy/opec-members-increase-oil-production-quota-by-188-000-bpd-no-word-on-uaes-withdrawal-amid-war-in-west-asia-11777814879556.htmland market stability.
Although the latest increase completes the reversal of the 2023 voluntary cuts, OPEC will continue to maintain another layer of production curbs affecting most member countries. Those reductions, totaling around 2 million bpd and introduced in 2022, are scheduled to remain in place until the end of 2026.
A pause was still a feasible option, said Jorge Leon, an analyst at Rystad, according to Reuters.
“OPEC has finished unwinding its voluntary cuts. The next challenge is managing the surplus that could emerge as export flows normalise,” he said.
“Having completed the restoration campaign, OPEC has little incentive to rush into further supply changes. Our base case is a fourth-quarter pause while the group prepares for the 2027 quota negotiations.”
Meanwhile, OPEC is conducting a review of member countries’ oil production capacities, which will serve as the basis for setting production baselines and quotas from 2027 onward. The review is expected to pave the way for potentially challenging negotiations, as several members—including Iraq—are seeking higher production quotas to reflect expanded production capacity.
OPEC currently comprises 21 members, including Russia and several other allied producers.
In recent years, however, only the seven core members, along with the UAE before its departure, have been directly involved in managing monthly production adjustments.
The seven participating producers are scheduled to hold their next meeting on September 6, when they are expected to assess market conditions and decide on output policy for the remainder of the year.
