BJP insiders also point to some internal differences within the party dispensation. However, the two-term CM Adityanath’s own popularity is seen to be intact, even as he has intensified his public outreach, criss-crossing the regions across the state to shore up the party’s prospects in the 2027 elections.
Yogi’s initiatives
Adityanath has taken a series of measures to reach out to youth and address concerns over jobs. Earlier this month, he launched Uttar Pradesh Corporation for Outsourcing Services (UPCOS) with the avowed objective to benefit and safeguard the interests of 3.5 lakh outsourced employees and their families in the state.
Last month, announcing his decision to distribute appointment letters to one lakh youth over six months, the CM said his government has provided over 9.3 lakh jobs during its nine-and-a-half years tenure so far.
In recent months, the Adityanath government has launched a massive drive for hiring police and teachers, the Mukhyamantri Yuva Udyami Vikas Abhiyan to promote local entrepreneurship, and stipend-backed internships for students in corporate and technical institutions. It has also introduced the centralised family cards to identify households that do not have any members in government or private jobs.
BJP’s challenges
One of the key challenges facing the BJP is the widening caste faultlines and rising socio-political friction over it. “While the perception that the BJP is an upper caste party is regaining strength among the OBC groups, including among mid-level officials, there are WhatsApp groups on caste lines among officials which fan such fears. Even the upper castes are divided on Thakur-Brahmin lines. The deepening differences between the ministers from these two communities is also an issue,” said a state party leader.
“The under-employment feeling, that overqualified persons are in jobs that do not use their skills properly, also feed the narrative that there are no jobs,” the BJP leader said, adding that it adds to growing frustration among Gen Z over alleged irregularities in the education and examination systems.
The UGC equity regulations, albeit stayed by the Supreme Court earlier this year, have also caused resentment among a section of upper castes, fuelling a new problem for the BJP ahead of the UP polls. It was brought to strengthen protection against caste discrimination in higher educational institutions across the country.
However, despite these factors, Adityanath’s USP remains his record on law and order and his popularity among women. “Both the Prime Minister (Narendra Modi) and the CM are very popular among women voters. The government is set to announce more schemes for women and it will consolidate that support base,” said a senior BJP leader.
Oppn’s play
For the Opposition, a major stumbling block remains the game of one-upmanship between the Akhilesh Yadav-led Samajwadi Party (SP), which is still trying to get its act together, and the Congress, which is looking to capitalise on its renewed traction among the minorities and youth under Rahul Gandhi’s leadership. Hammering out a smooth seat-sharing deal could be an uphill task for the two INDIA bloc allies.
A victory in UP would boost the Opposition’s standing at the national level. But a defeat would be disastrous for the SP as it has already been out of power in the state for a decade.
Rahul’s latest push on caste census, questioning the current methodology for its enumeration – and his call for lifting the 50% cap on reservation to ensure ‘jitni abadi utna haq’ (representation as per population) – has posed a fresh challenge for the BJP. The party has intensified efforts to keep its OBC support base intact, which played
a key role in scripting its win in the last two Assembly elections. OBCs make up more than 40% of UP’s population.
The Opposition has also accused the government’s selection committees of often invoking the phrase, Not Found Suitable (NFS), to deny jobs for the SC, ST and OBC candidates against the vacancies legally set aside for them.
“Sentiments have flared up among both upper castes and OBCs. Brahmins feel marginalised, they are vocal too and the community leaders in the BJP are under pressure. The question they raise is: SP did a lot for Yadavs and Muslims, BSP for Dalits, so what has BJP done for us,” said a Brahmin BJP leader.
Akhilesh’s PDA (Pichda, Dalit and Alpsankhyak) plank and his party’s bids to consolidate these sections could bolster the Opposition’s chances in the UP elections.
However, the operational and ideological differences between the SP and the Congress – especially after the SP emerged more confident after the 2024 Lok Sabha elections in which it got 37 seats as against the BJP’s 33 – may create hurdles in promptly sealing a seat-sharing pact and building a cohesive front against the BJP.
While Rahul’s appeal among the minorities would make Akhilesh reliant on the Congress for consolidation of this core base, allowing the latter to seek a larger share of seats, the Congress may have to lean on the SP for managing the OBC dynamics in the polls.
