Russia supplies half of India’s crude as imports jump in June

New Delhi: India’s imports of Russian crude are averaging 2.66 million barrels per day (mbpd) in June, up nearly 40% from May, lifting Moscow’s share of the country’s oil purchases to about 50% as refiners continued to favour discounted barrels amid disruptions in West Asia.

Russian crude arrivals averaged 1.91 mbpd in May and more than doubled the 1.04 mbpd imported in February, when Russian supplies were disrupted by US sanctions, according to data from trade intelligence firm Kpler.

The increase has cemented Russia’s position as India’s largest crude supplier at a time when concerns over shipping through the Strait of Hormuz have prompted buyers to secure supplies from alternative sources and routes.

“India’s imports remained strong through June, supported by continued discounts and steady refinery demand. Russian barrels remain competitive against global benchmarks,” said Sumit Ritolia, senior manager for modelling at Kpler.

“Regardless of whether the US waiver is extended, we expect India’s imports of Russian crude to remain robust, even if not at record-high levels,” said Ritolia.

Russian crude is currently sold at a discount of $4-5 per barrel compared to the global benchmark of Brent. The August contract of the Brent crude on the Intercontinental Exchange closed at $80.57 per barrel on Friday, up 9% from its previous close.

Amid a supply crunch during the war on Iran, the US waived sanctions on Russian oil to help ‌vulnerable economies deal with the energy crisis. The waiver on the sanctions ended on 17 June.

West Asia typically accounts for 60-70% of India’s crude oil imports. The UAE is India’s second-largest supplier in June, exporting about 636,000 barrels per day to India. Most of those shipments moved through ADNOC’s Habshan-Fujairah pipeline, which bypasses the Strait of Hormuz.

Saudi Arabia was the third largest supplier with 384,000 bpd of oil supplies to India so far in June.

According to Ritolia, Gulf producers are likely to continue relying on alternative export routes even if traffic through the Strait of Hormuz normalizes.

“Given the uncertainty surrounding the durability of any deal, lingering security concerns, and the time required for shipowners and insurers to fully regain confidence, Gulf producers are likely to maintain maximum flexibility in their export systems,” Ritolia said.

“As a result, bypass routes will continue to play an important role during the initial stages of normalisation, reducing reliance on Hormuz and providing a contingency against any renewed disruptions.”

Market participants are closely watching diplomatic efforts to resolve the West Asia crisis, with high-level talks between the US and Iran scheduled to start on Sunday. Any breakthrough could influence both shipping routes and crude trade flows.

Prashant Vashisht, senior vice-president and co-group head, corporate ratings at Icra Ltd, said Russian crude is likely to remain an important part of India’s import basket in the near term.

“There is still uncertainty over the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. Further, as the global demand is much higher than the supplies currently, Russian supplies would continue to flow and India will continue to buy from Russia,” Vashisht said.

In case sanctions on Iran are waived off, and fresh sanctions imposed on Russian oil, “we may see realignment of supplies.” “But in the current situation, such a scenario does not seem likely in the near term. It depends on how the peace deal talks pan out,” he added.

Russia has been the top supplier of oil to India since 2022, after the Russia-Ukraine war broke out and the West shut imports of Russian energy products.

Imports surged to as high as 35% of total imports in FY25 and several months in FY26 before tapering around December 2025-January 2026, post sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft, and the signing of the interim trade agreement between India and the US.

The outcome of ongoing diplomatic negotiations on West Asia remains critical for India, which imports around $123 billion worth of crude oil annually. An increase of $1 per barrel in crude prices can raise India’s annual import bill by approximately ₹18,000 crore.