Netanyahu facing setback in Israel elections? Rivals weigh joining forces with Arab parties amid hung mandate
Israelis awaited the final election results on Wednesday as no clear winner emerged, raising the possibility of weeks of coalition negotiations between
and opposition parties seeking to remove him from power.
Arab-led parties made historic gains, but it remained uncertain whether Netanyahu’s opponents would agree to work with them to secure a parliamentary majority. Issues involving Palestinians and their descendants remain deeply sensitive in Israel.
Netanyahu, who hopes to remain the country’s longest-serving prime minister, suffered a setback as his Likud party lost support compared with the 2022 election. Following the vote, he strongly rejected the possibility of forming a partnership with Arab-led parties, describing such cooperation as treasonous.
On Wednesday, he warned against what he called a “dangerous government” that could include Arab-led parties. These parties, whose constituents account for about 20 per cent of Israel’s population, have also ruled out partnering with Netanyahu.
His main challenger, centrist former military chief Gadi Eisenkot, has left open the possibility of cooperating with Arab-led parties under certain conditions. These include their recognition of Israel as a Jewish state and their designation of Hamas as an extremist group.
Israel elections tally so far
It remains unclear whether other opposition figures who have rejected such an alliance would reconsider their positions to remove Netanyahu from office.
The Central Election Committee (CEC) reported that 89.8 per cent of ballots had been counted, with Netanyahu’s bloc projected to secure 53 seats in the 120-member Knesset. The opposition bloc led by Eisenkot, head of the Yashar party, was expected to win 48 seats, leaving both sides short of the 61 seats required to form a majority government.
Meanwhile, the two predominantly Arab parties were projected to win a combined 19 seats, placing them in a potentially decisive kingmaker position. Arab voters turned out in record numbers in Tuesday’s election, hoping to remove Netanyahu and his far-right allies from power. The parties’ projected tally would surpass their previous record of 15 seats.
Netanyahu suffers setback but still in contention
The counting of absentee ballots, including votes from military personnel and diplomats, was expected to continue until Thursday evening, according to Elad Naveh, control manager at the Central Elections Committee. An estimated 500,000 such ballots remained to be counted. Israeli law requires the official results to be certified by November 4.
Voter turnout reached nearly 78 per cent, the highest level since 1999.
The election reflected growing dissatisfaction with Netanyahu’s alliance with far-right parties, as well as public anger over exemptions from military service granted to many ultra-Orthodox Jewish men. Likud’s share of the vote fell from 23.4 per cent in 2022.
However, the results suggested that Netanyahu’s opponents had failed to capitalize fully on public grief and anger following the Hamas-led attack on October 7, 2023, to decisively end his political career.
One of Netanyahu’s far-right allies, National Security Minister Itamar Ben-Gvir, also lost support. Many Israelis view him as representing the most extreme elements of the government. He has openly taunted Palestinian detainees and claimed that many people in Gaza are “not even people.”
Despite the setback, Likud was expected to remain the largest party and could be asked by President Isaac Herzog to form the next government. However, the president is not legally required to appoint the leader of the largest party to lead coalition negotiations.
“We must do everything we can, certainly after yesterday, to avoid another round of elections,” Herzog said on Wednesday.
One potential route to a parliamentary majority would involve Eisenkot forming an alliance with Arab-led parties. Although their combined vote share stood at 14.9 per cent, such cooperation would face significant political resistance.
If no party leader can assemble a majority coalition, Israel could hold another election early next year. The country experienced five elections between April 2019 and November 2022 amid similar political deadlock.
It remains uncertain whether thousands of Israelis living abroad would once again return home to vote and whether Arab voters would maintain their increased participation.
“After an election with such high voter turnout, it would be a mistake to hold another election,” Eisenkot told supporters early Wednesday. “It is our duty, and my personal duty, to do everything possible to respect the will of the people.”
A minority government is another possibility, although it would need support from parties outside the governing coalition to pass legislation.
Arab-led parties could play decisive role
The strong performance of Arab-led parties has reignited debate over Israel’s national identity and the political participation of its Arab citizens.
“We have no future here if we do not stop being afraid,” said Yair Golan, whose Democrats party supports including Arab-led parties in a governing coalition. “We must no longer accept Netanyahu’s racist division between Jewish votes and Arab votes.”
Arab citizens of Israel are largely descendants of Palestinians who remained within the country following its establishment in 1948. They frequently face discrimination and are often viewed with suspicion because of their support for Palestinian rights.
That distrust intensified following the October 7, 2023, attack, despite the fact that Arab citizens were also among those killed and abducted.
With inputs from Associated Press
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