India’s widening current account deficit amid global uncertainty: At what point do alarm bells ring?
The main reason for the sharp increase in the expected current account deficit is not hard to guess. IMF economists have assumed that international oil prices will be at $82.22 a barrel in 2026, as against $67.74 in 2025. Meanwhile, the Reserve Bank of India has also made a similar change in the assumptions underlying its analysis in its newMonetary Policy Report that was released in early April. The Indian central bank now assumes that the price of a barrel of crude oil will be at $85, up from the $70 it had cemented into its forecasts in October 2025.
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