Goldman Sachs CEO succession planning faces one big problem

Goldman Sachs is on top of Wall Street right now, advising on more than $1 trillion in merger deals and generating more than $12 billion in equities revenue in the first six months of the year alone.

Those records make it all the more striking that Goldman’s board has reportedly discussed replacing CEO David Solomon, 64, with president John Waldron, 57, as early as next year.

The succession plan, which would elevate Solomon to executive chairman, could be voted on by the bank’s board in coming months, The Wall Street Journal reported late Monday.

The transition would be one of the “smoother and more deliberate” leadership handovers seen on Wall Street, Wells Fargo banking analyst Mike Mayo wrote Monday.

But there’s a key risk facing Goldman: Solomon may not be ready to give up his seat, and Waldron may not be willing to wait for it indefinitely.

Solomon has gotten Goldman back on track after an ill-fated foray into consumer banking earlier in his tenure. With help from a deals rebound powered by the Trump administration and the artificial intelligence boom, Goldman is once again a clean story for investors: It’s the top pure-play investment bank.

“It’s just very hard for a person like that to decide they are really going to retire,” said retired University of Delaware law professor Charles Elson. “Being 65 years old today is like being 55 was 30 years ago.”

Elson also noted that Solomon is chairman of Goldman’s board and holds outsized influence over the body, making it hard for him to be forced out.

Goldman spokesman Tony Fratto said there is “no definitive timeline for succession” at the bank. Bank boards often discuss succession planning over the near, medium and longer term.

Another expert in CEO succession, Yale School of Management’s Jeffrey Sonnenfeld, said it would be bad governance if Goldman’s board was trying to “drive out a high performing CEO like David Solomon.”

Under Solomon, who took over as CEO in 2018, Goldman shares are up more than 300%, the second-best performance versus the KBW Bank Index, according to Mayo. Only JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon, who has led his firm for nearly 21 years, has done better.

That leaves Goldman in something of a bind: Even if Solomon is planning on leaving in a year, he has little incentive to say so. Doing so would make him a lame duck with less influence inside the bank, according to Elson.

But if Solomon decides he wants to remain CEO amid an AI boom that he believes is in its early innings, Waldron may tire of waiting for the crown.

After all, Waldron, Goldman’s president and chief operating officer, had reportedly been in discussions for leadership roles at alternative asset managers Apollo and Carlyle.

To keep him, Goldman gave Waldron an $80 million retention package that lasts through 2030. Even then, a deep-pocketed suitor could make a play for Waldron, said Elson.

“There will always be tension in a set up like that,” Elson said. “It’s like Prince Charles waiting for his mother to die. You can’t set your own priorities, because there’s someone else in charge.”