Analysts favor humanoid supplier, even as robots remain concepts — for now
As the novelty surrounding humanoid robots gives way to business questions about their commercialization, stock analysts still see potential in one gear box supplier. For the past three years, Tesla has been co-developing a new type of gear box for humanoid robotics with Shenzhen-listed Shuanghuan, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a report this week. The component, called a reducer, translates motor power into mechanical movement. Deutsche Bank analysts expect the jointly developed reducers could be deployed in the waist joints of humanoid robots. Shuanghuan will keep a controlling stake in a planned initial public offering of Fine Motion, its robotics gearbox subsidiary, which accounted for about 5% of the parent company’s consolidated revenue and net profit in 2025, the analysts wrote. Much of Shuanghuang’s business comes from China’s electric car companies, as well as Stellantis and BMW . The Deutsche Bank analysts rate Shuanghuan a buy, with a price target of 45 yuan ($6.70). “In our view, the market underestimates Shuanghuan’s robotics opportunity across three dimensions,” Bernstein analysts said in a separate report this week. “The company is well positioned to benefit as Chinese Auto [original equipment manufacturers] expand into humanoid robotics, a group we believe could emerge as the industry’s true game changers,” the Bernstein report said. Chinese EV company Xpeng last week valued its robotics business at more than $6 billion , about the same size as its electric car business. Apart from introducing electric cars, consumer electronics company Xiaomi is also showcasing its own humanoids. Analysts have previously noted the auto industry shares many of the same suppliers as the humanoid robotics sector. In terms of geopolitics, “Shuanghuan stands to benefit from growth in both the Chinese and U.S. robotics industries amid U.S.-China robotics decoupling,” the Bernstein analysts said, noting “U.S. customers’ demand for cost-efficient sourcing and the lower regulatory risk of pure mechanical components, i.e. reducers.” The analysts rate Shuanghuan shares “outperform,” with a price target of 60 yuan. UBS analysts rate Shuanghuan a “buy,” with a price target of 50 yuan. They trimmed their price target by 3 yuan following Shuanghuan’s second-quarter earnings, amid pressure on sales from key client BYD . But UBS expects new artificial intelligence and humanoid robotics-related business “could unlock incremental space for Shuanghuan’s medium- to long-term growth.” Morgan Stanley’s wrapup of the recent World Robot Conference in Beijing emphasized a preference for leading parts makers, including Shuanghuan. “As [humanoid] deployment gradually starts, the bar for component suppliers should rise from product qualification to reliability, consistency, yield, manufacturing scale and cost, favoring suppliers with proven mass-production capabilities,” the analysts wrote last week. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
