Why Maharashtra MLC poll numbers throw difficult questions at BJP | Political Pulse News
Numbers emerging from the counting of votes for the five MLC seats that went to polls have proved to be an eye-opener for the ruling BJP, which was engaged in an intense seat-sharing tussle with its Mahayuti allies, the Shiv Sena Eknath Shinde and NCP.
According to latest trends on Wednesday, the BJP candidate was trailing in the Pune graduates’ seat while the Nagpur graduates’ seat, which is the home turf of Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis and Union minister Nitin Gadkari, witnessed a close contest. Nagpur also is the hometown of minister Chandrashekhar Bawankule and houses the RSS headquarters.
The latest trends showed the Mahayuti leading in three of the five constituencies and the Opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi (MVA) ahead in two. The BJP’s Sudhakar Kohale had moved ahead of Congress’s sitting MLC Abhijit Wanjari in Nagpur graduates’ after trailing in the initial round, while NCP (SP) candidates were leading in both Pune and Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar graduates’ constituencies.
The BJP was also ahead in the Pune teachers’ seat, while the Sena was leading in the Amravati teachers’ seat.
The trends, if they hold, raise questions over the BJP’s candidate selection process, its handling of internal dissent and its ability to consolidate support in constituencies which have been seen as its traditional strongholds.
The discontent within the BJP had been evident from the beginning, with questions over the sidelining of old loyalists. The electoral outcome appears to have reflected some of these concerns, particularly in Nagpur, where the party faced a stiff challenge despite its organisational strength.
Close battle for Nagpur
In the Nagpur graduates’ seat, the sizeable vote share of Independent candidate Nitesh Karale added another dimension to the contest. The Nagpur graduates’ seat has particular significance for the BJP. Historically, the party has maintained an advantage in the constituency even when the Congress-NCP combine was in power. In 2020, however, BJP leader and former Mayor Sandeep Joshi lost the seat.
The closely fought contest suggests that the BJP cannot take its traditional support base among graduates for granted. The electorate appears divided along caste, community, religious and ideological lines, making the constituency more competitive than the party may have anticipated.
The challenge for the BJP in Nagpur also came from within. Senior leader Anil Sole had criticised the party’s functioning, alleging that local leaders were no longer consulted and that decisions were being taken at the top. Sole had threatened to contest as an independent candidate but was persuaded to withdraw from the race at the last minute.
While the BJP maintained that it had retained the Nagpur graduates’ seat, the contest has prompted concerns within the organisation. Party leaders believe the narrow margin and the role of independent candidates should serve as a warning to the state leadership.
BJP spokesperson Navnath Ban, however, rejected the suggestion that the results amounted to a setback. “Of the five seats, Mahayuti has three and the MVA two. The BJP is ahead in two of the three seats it contested. Why should this be seen as a setback or debacle?” he said.
Ban also dismissed the Opposition’s claim that the ballot paper elections had exposed the BJP’s weakening electoral position.
Earlier, Shiv Sena (UBT) MP Sanjay Raut had said that elections conducted through ballot papers showed where the BJP stood, arguing that the party no longer swept elections as it once did.
Questions galore
Despite the party leadership’s defence, questions have begun to surface within the BJP. A senior party leader said the loss in the Pune graduates’ seat highlighted the need to reassess the process.
“In Pune, which is a cultural and educational capital of Maharashtra, we fielded an outsider, Smita Jadhav. She may have been qualified for the candidature, but did she have acceptance within the party and among its core voters?” the leader asked.
The leader questioned why the party had failed to project a candidate who had served the organisation for decades and had a strong connect with its cadre. If no such candidate was available, the party needed to examine why, the functionary said.
NCP(SP) senses opening
The defeat in Pune graduates’ has provided NCP (SP) with an opportunity to regain political ground, with Harshada Deshmukh emerging as a key beneficiary of the contest.
The council elections have also exposed differences within the Mahayuti alliance. In the Chhatrapati Sambhajinagar graduates’ constituency, NCP candidate Satish Chavan was trailing NCP (SP)’s Pratapsingh Patil. The contest has raised questions about the ruling alliance’s ability to ensure coordination among its partners.
Despite the BJP, Shiv Sena and NCP being in power together in the state, the alliance struggled to consolidate support behind its candidate. Shiv Sena leader Abdul Sattar had openly alleged that members of his party were supporting the NCP (SP) candidate. The episode has underlined the limits of the BJP’s influence over its alliance partners and the difficulties in containing rebellion within the ruling coalition.
Something to cheer for BJP
The Pune teachers’ constituency offered a contrasting picture for the BJP, with its candidate Kaustubh Gawde taking a decisive lead over Congress sitting MLC Jayant Asgaonkar. The Shiv Sena backed Independent candidate Sachin Sanap, but his candidature had not significantly dented the BJP’s prospects.
In the Amravati teachers’ seat, Sena candidate and sitting MLC Kiran Sarnaik was leading against Congress candidate Aditi Pohare. The contest, however, also reflected the impact of competing candidates and internal differences within the political camps.
According to election officials, 182 candidates were in the fray across the five constituencies that went to polls. A total of 10.68 lakh registered voters were eligible to vote at 2,419 polling stations. The overall voter turnout was 72.96%.
