Will Germany under Friedrich Merz script the EU’s independence from America?

Against this backdrop, what does Merz’s rise to power mean for Europe? What does it signal for the future of the EU-US relationship? Will Germany, under Merz’s leadership, recalibrate transatlantic security partnerships and, in turn, reshape NATO’s security architecture? How will this shift unfold amid domestic pressures to strengthen Germany’s industrial base and maintain economic pragmatism?

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More importantly, can Merz advance the ambitious agenda of European independence from the US while facing a domestic political landscape where the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), once a fringe party, has surged to the centre stage with 20% of the vote?

Does the EU need independence from the US?

Trump has repeatedly criticized the EU as unfair to America, calling for retaliation and a break from past alliances in the name of “America First.” Merz has pushed back in clear and unequivocal terms, arguing that it is the EU—not the US—that must seek greater independence. His stance is direct: if America prioritizes itself above all else, it will stand alone. This signals a potential breakdown in the long-standing transatlantic security partnership and raises serious questions about the future of NATO’s structure.

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Germany, the most populous country in the 27-nation EU and a key NATO member, has been Ukraine’s second-largest weapons supplier after the US. In the shifting geopolitical landscape, Berlin will play a decisive role in shaping the EU’s response to upcoming challenges—including its relationship with Washington and the future of NATO itself.

This moment could mark a turning point for European politics. If Merz translates his rhetoric into action, he could steer Europe in a radically new direction, recalibrating its security architecture. But what would this mean for Ukraine? Is this a sign of renewed hope, or just a fleeting promise? Even with a strong coalition at home, Merz’s position remains precarious, particularly given the challenges posed by the AfD.

What’s next for the EU and NATO?

Despite domestic challenges, Merz has called for a stronger German role within both the EU and NATO. He has pledged continued support for Ukraine, announcing that Germany will supply Kyiv with long-range Taurus cruise missiles. 

Repeatedly, he has emphasized the need for German leadership to steer the EU and NATO in a radically different direction. He advocates for deeper engagement with France and Poland while pushing back against China, which he has labeled a full member of the “axis of autocracies.”

What stands out is the recalibration happening at multiple levels, both within and beyond the EU. On one hand, a potential break from its traditional security ally, the US, has underscored the need for Europe to strengthen its own defense capabilities. Merz has pledged that Germany will not only meet but exceed NATO’s target of spending 2% of GDP on defense in the long term.

Looking ahead, he has also floated the idea of nuclear cooperation between France, the US, and Germany—envisioning a future where Europe reduces its dependence on American security guarantees. In his view, this would be a crucial step toward overhauling NATO’s security architecture.

Merz has repeatedly urged European allies to start considering a NATO without America, a call that could mean shedding the Cold War-era framework and rethinking both the structure and purpose of the alliance. His vision is clear: a self-reliant, EU-led security framework.

Can Merz deliver amid rising far-right influence?

While this is a pivotal moment in global politics, it is equally a turning point for Germany. For the first time in the country’s postwar history, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) has secured nearly 20.9% of the vote in a national election—doubling its support since 2021, when it won 10.3%. This marks the strongest showing for an extremist party in Germany’s Bundestag since World War II, significantly expanding its parliamentary influence.

Trump’s vocal support for the AfD has irritated Merz and the CDU. The AfD remains barred from formal governance due to Germany’s long-standing ‘firewall’ (Brandmauer) policy, under which mainstream parties refuse to cooperate with extremist groups—a principle upheld since the end of World War II.

However, while AfD may be excluded from formal coalitions, its anti-immigration stance—rooted in working-class economic grievances—poses a real threat to the CDU’s voter base.

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As Merz seeks to redefine Germany’s role in NATO and the EU, the question remains: Can he balance his transatlantic ambitions with the pressing realities of domestic politics? With right-wing populism on the rise, his ability to push through a bold foreign policy agenda will be tested by the need for economic pragmatism at home.

Shweta Singh is associate professor, department of international relations, South Asian University.