Why Sanae Takaichi’s popularity alone won’t be enough in the face of steep challenges

Past prime ministers have typically hung such votes on a policy issue. In a gamble on her popularity, Takaichi called on the electorate to endorse her personally. “As a country with a parliamentary system, there is no means by which the citizens can choose their prime minister directly,” she said last month. “I want the Japanese people to make the decision directly on whether to entrust the management of the nation to Sanae Takaichi.” Management has been entrusted. Now, she must repay that trust.

The margin of victory is far more resounding than almost anyone could have expected. Her 316 seats exceed the achievements of any leader of the Liberal Democratic Party (LDP). Even Shinzo Abe, her late mentor and Japan’s longest-serving leader, did not realize this level of success. A two-thirds majority in the lower house makes her minority position in the upper house largely an irrelevance, as bills rejected by the upper house can be forced through. And it sets her up to be one of the most consequential leaders the country has known for years.

Partly, she has benefited from the quality of her opponents. The Centrist Reform Alliance, hastily formed from the traditional opposition party and the LDP’s former coalition partner, was a disaster. But perhaps any opponent would have struggled against arguably the most naturally gifted politician of her generation.

The victory will show us the true Takaichi. With its precarious position in both houses of parliament, her government has so far been reactive. Now she has a mandate to enact her vision—but exactly what that is remains a little unclear.

Before asking what Takaichi stands for, let’s make clear what she’s not. Many reports still brand her as an ‘ultra-conservative’ or ‘ultra-nationalist,’ labels that confuse far more than they inform. She is a conservative, yes, but in most countries, her policies of a strong economy and healthy defensive posture would be firmly centrist.

There is one major change she might now pursue—the first-ever revision of Japan’s constitution. It was a long-standing goal of the LDP that even Abe was never sufficiently emboldened to attempt. Takaichi has already shown her appetite for risk and spoke on the campaign trail of revising the US-imposed pacifist constitution to recognize Japan’s military. With a sufficient majority in the lower house and enough parties that want revision in the upper, it’s an idea whose time might soon come.

That would prove extremely unpopular in Beijing. China was one of the big losers on Sunday, as its campaign to exert economic and political pressure on Takaichi over her comments on Taiwan backfired spectacularly.

The episode will only push her closer to the US, which she’ll visit next month. US President Donald Trump likes a winner, particularly one he backed—though Takaichi may not have appreciated his last-minute endorsement of her. The prime minister can leverage that to get further into Trump’s good books, perhaps securing better terms on tariffs or a more forceful backing of Tokyo’s position vis-a-vis Beijing.

It’s important to note also that Takaichi is not an advocate for irresponsible spending, despite so much market commentary to the contrary. She has not done the greatest job in outlining her economic policy. Rather than spend like crazy, she is seeking a change in the nation’s attitude to break free of austerity.

Admittedly, that is not what people immediately associate with Japan because of its historic debt levels. But the reality is that as a whole, the country saves far more than it should and spends less than it needs. What this means in practical terms isn’t yet clear. Her proposal to temporarily cut the sales tax on food to zero disappeared during the election campaign but reappeared immediately in media interviews as the scale of her triumph became clear. She’d have been best advised to drop it.

That is one example of how Takaichi shouldn’t let success go to her head. First and foremost, she must be more careful with her remarks: Her comments on Taiwan and the weak yen, misinterpreted though they have been, sparked distractions she could do without.

But most importantly, a victory based on personal popularity requires her to maintain that appeal and connection with the electorate. That calls for swift action. So far, she’s had the advantage of being seen as an outsider within the ruling party. Now, she owns it—warts and all. ©Bloomberg

The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Japan and the Koreas.