Trump’s tariff threats, Russia oil remarks risk undoing 25 years of India-US ties: Carnegie report

With his actions in recent weeks, US President Donald Trump appears to be jeopardising Washington’s relationship with New Delhi, carefully built over the past 25 years. 

According to a report by the US-based Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Trump’s moves are likely to impact bilateral ties that were shaped through more than two decades of bipartisan effort, including initiatives from his own first term.

Trump has issued multiple threats targeting India, including plans to substantially raise tariffs and impose penalties over its continued oil imports from Russia.

‘Blunt coercion’

In a post shared on his platform Truth Social, Trump alleged, “India is not only buying massive amounts of Russian Oil, they are then, for much of the Oil purchased, selling it on the Open Market for big profits.”

He further added, “They don’t care how many people in Ukraine are being killed by the Russian War Machine. Because of this, I will be substantially raising the Tariff paid by India to the USA.”

Also Read: Will substantially raise tariffs on India from 25% in next 24 hours: US President Donald Trump ahead of August 7 deadline

India may see this as interference in foreign policy, says analyst

The Carnegie report, authored by Evan Feigenbaum, termed Trump’s stance as “blunt coercion, gross interference in Indian foreign policy, impractical given India’s oil import needs, and a cynical effort to ‘blame India’ for the West’s (and Trump’s own) collective failure to get Moscow to stop its war on Ukraine.”

The report noted that Trump had also threatened to impose further tariffs on India for its continued participation in BRICS — the international grouping that includes Brazil, Russia, China, South Africa and others. Analysts view this move too as coercive and a breach of international norms.

‘America First’ vs ‘Make in India’: Conflicting visions

In addition to targeting India’s oil imports, Trump has slammed US companies that manufacture in India, warning them of financial penalties unless they shift production back to the US. According to the Carnegie report, this deepens the clash between Trump’s “America First” policy and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s “Make in India” initiative.

The think tank added that this contradiction further reflects Trump’s coercive economic nationalism, which may set the stage for longer-term tension in bilateral trade and investment flows.

Also Read:Trump warns medicine import tariffs could soar to 250% amid push for US drug manufacturing 

Meeting with Pak army chief adds fuel to the fire

The president’s recent meeting with Pakistan’s Army Chief General Asim Munir at the White House has also raised eyebrows in New Delhi, especially since it came just weeks after a deadly Jammu and Kashmir’s Pahalgam terror attack.

“Trump’s fulsome praise for Islamabad and dealmaking with Pakistan’s army and government now raise obvious concerns in New Delhi that this too has gone by the wayside. And these concerns have been amplified exponentially because Trump’s moves came within weeks of the April 22 terrorist attack that killed twenty-six Indian civilians in Pahalgam and led to a new outbreak of hostilities between the two countries,” the report noted.

Techno-nationalism on the rise in Trump’s inner circle

The report also highlighted how the Trump administration has promoted a new brand of American techno-nationalism, where technology collaboration with foreign partners is viewed with suspicion.

It stated that several voices around Trump want to restrict technology exports and co-innovation, a development that may impact India’s tech sector and defence cooperation with the US.

Also Read:Trump unwilling to criticise China even after being largest Russian oil buyers, targets India unfairly: GTRI report

Ties with US now a political flashpoint in India: Carnegie

For the first time in two decades, Trump’s remarks and threats have turned India’s relationship with the US into a volatile domestic political issue, according to Carnegie. The report observed that “the opposition, the media, and the people in India have urged government to avoid showing weakness in the face of Trump’s threats.”

It warned that issues directly affecting India — including H1B visas, tech worker mobility, offshoring, and technology sharing — are among the most contentious and partisan in US politics. Carnegie concluded that this shift marks a troubling turn for the next 20 years of India-US ties, undermining the bipartisan progress made since the early 2000s.