India’s flurry of trade deals will need climate-resilient ports to justify today’s wave of export optimism

But this quest rests on a brittle foundation.

India’s port and logistical infrastructure is out of step with the demands of climate-resilient trade. The country’s maritime ambitions are growing faster than its ability to shield its nodal points of trade from floods, heatwaves and chronic inland bottlenecks.

Over 95% of India’s international merchandise trade by volume moves by sea. Kandla, Nhava Sheva, Mundra, Visakhapatnam and Chennai move hundreds of millions of tonnes of cargo annually. Capacity has been expanding steadily to meet shipping demand. Yet, none of these ports, nor the country’s ambitious Sagarmala programme overseeing their expansion, is adequately prepared for the scale of climate disruption projected in the next two decades.

The science is clear. Along India’s coastline, sea levels are rising faster than the global average. Tide gauges at Kandla, for instance, have recorded a level-rise rate of 3.18mm per year since 1950. This sounds trivial until storm-surges arrive, riding on higher baseline levels. Each millimetre adds force to waves that crash into port infrastructure. Each centimetre pushes water deeper into coastal terminals.

Combined with sinking land in some areas and intense cyclones in the Arabian Sea, these trends sharply increase the risk of coastal inundation. Mumbai, the Gulf of Khambhat and Kerala are highly exposed. Heat extremes are also intensifying for our ports and inland logistics corridors that serve them. Neither heavy cranes nor human workers function efficiently under 45° Celsius heat.

Despite this, India continues to pursue a port development model that prizes capacity over resilience. The current plan is to push national port capacity from 1.65 billion tonnes to 2.5 billion tonnes by 2030. But this growth relies on an ageing and carbon-intensive hinterland system. Over 70% of inland freight moves by road, driving up logistics costs to a staggering 13–14% of gross domestic product (GDP), well above the 8-9% level in efficient economies.

Railways, the obvious low-carbon alternative, suffers from chronic congestion. More than 80% of high-density routes operate above capacity. Inland waterways and coastal shipping remain marginal.

The problem isn’t just one of exposure to climate risk. It is of institutional fragmentation and misplaced priorities. India’s major port plans, including its Maritime India Vision 2030, largely ignore climate adaptation.

Cyclones have damaged the Paradip and Visakhapatnam ports, shutting them down for days and costing crores in repairs and lost cargo.

There is no doubt that trade volumes will rise significantly. So will the cost of each disruption. A cyclone that results in the shutting of the Paradip port for a week would inflict damage that once took a month-long shutdown. Ports designed for storms that struck once a decade now face them every few years.

If India wants its trade pacts to deliver on their promise, it must treat ports and their surrounding infrastructure not as isolated assets, but as part of an interconnected, climate-exposed system. This requires three principal shifts.

One, integrate climate risk assessment into every port expansion plan, not as an afterthought but as a design driver. It means higher berth levels, better drainage, storm buffers like mangroves and backup energy systems.

Two, overhaul inland logistics to reduce reliance on trucks and ramp-up electrified rail and waterways, as outlined in the National Rail Plan and the Pradhan Mantri Gati Shakti framework.

Three, mandate full life-cycle carbon accounting in infrastructure, from materials to operations.

Unfortunately, green guidelines for ports that target a 70% cut in carbon emissions per tonne of cargo by 2047 remain without teeth. These must become enforceable requirements, not voluntary goals.

Renewable energy can power our port operations. Shore power can eliminate diesel emissions from docked ships. Electric equipment can replace fossil fuel machinery. Low-carbon materials can cut construction emissions.

India is not short of policy frameworks. What’s lacking is alignment and urgency. The ministry of ports may approve climate-resilient dredging plans, but if the railway ministry delays track upgrades or a state government stalls land acquisition, the logistics chain stays fragile.

The country needs a unified resilience strategy for its trade backbone, one that links ministries, port trusts, industrial and freight corridors and exporters under a common mandate: build for continuity, not just capacity.

Every port and logistical expansion will be in operation well into the second half of this century. If designed poorly, it will bake in vulnerabilities and emissions. With a timely course correction, India can transform its maritime trade backbone into a durable low-carbon system fit for a hotter world. To boost its trade prospects, India must storm-proof the gateways through which shipments flow. Trade deals create new opportunities, but infrastructure will partly determine whether India can seize them.

The author is an independent expert based in New Delhi, Kolkata and Odisha. Twitter: @scurve Instagram: @soumya.scurve.