India likely to add 150 million room ACs by 2035 amid rising temperatures: Study

New Delhi, Mar 26 (PTI) India is expected to add 130-150 million new room air conditioners (ACs) over the next decade which could increase the country’s peak power demand by more than 180 gigawatts (GW) by 2035, straining the power system, according to a new study published on Wednesday.

The study by the India Energy and Climate Center (IECC) at the University of California (UC) in Berkeley said the fastest-developing major economy can avoid severe power shortages and save consumers up to ₹2.2 lakh crore (USD 26 billion) by doubling the energy efficiency of room ACs over the next 10 years.

India adds 10–15 million new ACs annually, with another 130–150 million expected over the next decade. Without policy intervention, ACs alone could drive 120 GW of peak power demand by 2030 and 180 GW by 2035, nearly 30 per cent of the projected totals, the study said.

“This growth is outpacing India’s power supply and could lead to serious electricity shortages as early as 2026,” said Nikit Abhyankar, the study’s lead author and UC Berkeley faculty.

“ACs are becoming one of the biggest drivers of peak demand, and without intervention, we risk blackouts or costly emergency fixes. But with smart policy, we can turn this into a win for consumers, manufacturers and the grid,” he said.

PTI reported on Monday that India is likely to experience a nine to 10 per cent growth in peak electricity demand this summer with the country expected to experience more heat waves.

Last year, the all-India peak electricity demand crossed 250 GW on May 30, which was 6.3 per cent higher than the projections. Climate change-induced heat stress is one of the key factors driving electricity demand.

The share of the household sector in India’s total electricity consumption increased from 22 per cent in 2012-13 to 25 per cent in 2022-23. Much of this rise can be attributed to economic growth and the increasing need for cooling due to rising temperatures, experts say.

In the summer of 2024, room air conditioner sales surged by 40 to 50 per cent year-on-year amid record-breaking temperatures.

According to an ongoing research at the Oxford India Centre for Sustainable Development at the University of Oxford, the largest cooling demand, in terms of the total population, will come from India, followed by China, Nigeria, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh, Brazil, the Philippines and the US in a world two degrees Celsius warmer than pre-industrial times.

The study by the University of California recommends updating India’s Minimum Energy Performance Standards (MEPS), beginning with a 2027 revision that raises the 1-star label to ISEER 5.0 — equivalent to today’s 5-star level — and tightening standards every three years.

This alone could avoid 10 GW of shortages by 2028, 23 GW by 2030 and 60 GW by 2035, equivalent to 120 large power plants.

“This is not just about long-term energy savings; it’s an immediate grid reliability solution,” Abhyankar added.

Efficient ACs also offer massive consumer benefits. Even with slightly higher upfront prices, they could deliver net savings of ₹66,000 to ₹2,25,000 crore (USD 8–26 billion) by 2035, paying for themselves within two to three years through lower electricity bills.

“A common concern with efficient ACs is that they might be more expensive,” said Amol Phadke, co-author and UC Berkeley faculty.

“But our analysis of global markets, including India, shows that efficiency is not the main factor driving retail prices. With the right policy support, higher efficiency often goes hand in hand with lower costs, thanks to economies of scale, better supply chains and competitive markets,” he added.

Over 600 AC models — 20 per cent of all offerings — already exceed India’s top efficiency threshold, the 5-star level, with many produced by domestic manufacturers.

“This is a chance for Indian manufacturers to lead,” said Jose Dominguez, co-author and IECC researcher.

“With the right policy signal, they can scale under Make in India and PLI (Production Linked Incentive) schemes, positioning India as a global hub for sustainable and affordable cooling,” he said.

The report also calls for updating AC test procedures to better reflect India’s humid climate, where comfort depends not just on cooling but on moisture removal.