Here’s why crime rates in India will climb further before we can bring them down

The NCRB, set up in 1986, is our national agency responsible for collecting and analyzing crime data specified under the Indian Penal Code (IPC) and Special & Local Laws (SLL). Four years ago, the National Automated Fingerprint Identification System was integrated into the NCRB, granting it a searchable database of fingerprints related to criminal activity.

Unlike China, the US and UK, which have the largest crime DNA databases, India is yet to create the enabling legislation for a national repository of DNA related to crime.

While the Bharatiya Nyaya Sanhita replaced the IPC in 2024, the NCRB 2023 report makes for fascinating reading. Overall, India’s crime rate rose by 7.2% versus the previous year, with 6.4 million cases recorded. Over the last 20 years, the crime rate has nearly tripled to 448 per 100,000 citizens.

This increase is primarily due to three factors: increased reporting, urbanization of crime and the advent of cybercrimes. In 2023, India witnessed a crime every 5 seconds. Cybercrime rose sharply (up 31.2%), as did crime in metropolitan cities (10.6%).

While the number of murders in India is roughly the same as that of the US each year (over 20,000), the murder rate in India is only 40% that of the US per 100,000 citizens. India’s murder rate of 2.3 per 100,000 is one-tenth that of Mexico and Brazil and double that of the UK

Karnataka and Telangana top the states in terms of cybercrime, and with over 17,000 cases, Bengaluru easily tops the cities list. Surprisingly, Bengaluru also tops the nation in dowry-related crimes, with over 1,000 cases in 2023.

In contrast, Patna reported only a little over 100 dowry cases and Lucknow just 19. Similarly, Tamil Nadu shows an overall crime rate of 978 per 100,000 people, about double the national average. Bengaluru’s large count of cybercrime cases and Tamil Nadu’s high overall crime rate appear to reflect greater institutional transparency and deeper public trust in law enforcement than in other locations.

While violent crime largely held steady in 2023, Bengaluru became the third most violent city in India after Delhi and Mumbai. The NCRB categorizes offences such as murder, kidnapping and abduction, rape, attempt to murder, robbery, dacoity, arson and rioting as violent crimes. The Bengaluru reading is probably because of both improved reporting and rapid urbanization.

Like with the overall crime rate, the crime rate against women has also tripled over the last dozen years to 66.2 per 100,000 women. Delhi and Telangana reported the highest rates of 133 and 124 respectively. Again, this most likely arose from a combination of better reporting and faster urbanization.

A majority of cases under crimes against women were registered under ‘Cruelty by Husband or Relatives.’ Also, there has been a steady increase in the reporting of crime against Scheduled Caste and Schedule Tribe (SC and ST) citizens. In particular, crime against SC and ST women has risen sharply from lower levels 10 years ago.

Each year, along with the crime report, reports on prison statistics and accidental and suicide deaths are also released. There are about 1,400 prisons in India as of 2023. Prisons in India are subject to chronic overcrowding with occupancy estimated at 121%. Nearly 75% of inmates are awaiting trial, burdening the system.

A comprehensive law was enacted in 2023 to shift the focus from a punitive framework to a rights-based prison system. The Act envisages undertrial review committees that will look at prisoners’ cases and recommend speedy action like release on bail. A centralized digital platform for prisoner records has also been initiated.

Accidental deaths in India increased by 3.2% to about 444,000 in 2023. The largest cause of accidental deaths in India (45%) is road traffic. Bengaluru follows Delhi and Jaipur in traffic fatalities. The NCRB also reports deaths due to lightning strikes, sun and heat stroke and railway accidents. The NCRB 2023 shows about 10,000 deaths from snake bites, but this bares a discrepancy with data reported by the National Health Profile, suggesting a need for better data reconciliation.

India’s suicide rate reached a new high of 12.4 per 100,000 citizens in 2023. Over two-thirds of these suicides were by people below the age of 45. Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu recorded the highest number. There were nearly 11,000 farmer suicides that year, with the most instances in Maharashtra and Karnataka.

One must be careful in drawing strong conclusions from the NCRB 2023 data. It appears very likely that India’s reported crime rate will first go up from about 400 per 100,000 to about double that number as data capture and reporting improve. Only after significant reporting differences are removed can we draw clear comparisons and suggest comparative solutions.

Still, a few trends appear to be clear that call for action by Indian authorities. Violent crime seems to have plateaued and law enforcement must use this opportunity to lean in for further mitigation. Cybercrime is growing exponentially, and awareness, tracking and resolution all need to keep pace with its rapid evolution.

P.S: “Behind every successful fortune, there is a crime,” said Mario Puzo in ‘The Godfather.’

The author is chairman, InKlude Labs. Read Narayan’s Mint columns at www.livemint.com/avisiblehand