Elusive peace: India shouldn’t wade into the Ukraine quagmire

The tentative deal reached after a marathon 150-minute call has placed energy infrastructure out of bounds, but allowed broader hostilities to continue. In effect, Russia and Ukraine can continue targeting each other’s cities and ports. Putin’s rejection of Ukraine’s US-backed proposal for a complete cessation of hostilities for 30 days reflects Russia’s upper-hand in negotiations and a desire to use the ongoing warfare to perhaps extract more concessions from Ukraine, the US and maybe Europe. 

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By dictating conditions for a limited ceasefire, Moscow has revealed a strategy of portraying the US as feeble, reducing the global hegemon to a receiver rather than enforcer of terms. This, in itself, offers a hint of the tortuous road that lies ahead. The talks got further muddied with US-ally Israel resuming its bombing of Gaza and reneging on ceasefire conditions, raising doubts about Washington’s ability to keep its closest allies in check.

Given the Trump administration’s penchant for governance by whimsy, little will be known of the substantive issues discussed with Moscow and the future direction of these talks. As Fiona Hill, a former US intelligence official and former senior director on the National Security Council, told Foreign Affairs recently, “All of this is amateur hour.” 

In reality, with so many balls up in the air, the odds seem to be stacked against a lasting peace deal in Europe. First, early-stage peace parleys excluded Kyiv, the party with the most at stake. Second, current talks seem to be marked by an acquisitive undertone, with both top-level interlocutors seemingly keen on carving up land and economic resources in a third country. Third, Putin’s covetous streak and expansionist policy indicates that his territorial demands are likely to exceed what Russian armed forces already occupy. It is unlikely that Ukraine will roll over and accept this; this then could become the foundation for prolonged conflict. 

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The chill brought on by Putin’s forced occupation of Crimea in 2014, his full-scale invasion of Ukraine in 2022 and his revanchist desire to recreate a Soviet dominion is likely to keep Europe on tenterhooks for a while yet. Say hello to a renewed arms race.

There has been some chatter about the role that India could play, especially how New Delhi can be instrumental in achieving sustainable peace. This is a bit unrealistic at the moment. Russia is no longer the old friend it was; it marches to an entirely different beat today, refusing to intervene in India’s border skirmishes with China. With Trump and Putin on course to turning Ukraine into another geopolitical quagmire, India must think twice before it wades in. There is more to be lost than gained by playing peacemaker now, especially if an endless struggle breaks out and draws the rest of Europe in. 

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India must focus its attention on its own economy, fixing the structural problems that bedevil the lives and livelihoods of multitudes. The last thing we’d want at this juncture is an erosion of India’s strategic autonomy, a stance that gives the country a position of strength and invests it with bargaining superiority in world affairs.