China is using a Pacific Islands huddle to squeeze out Taiwan
China might not be attending a key Pacific Islands gathering this week, but that is not stopping it from wielding influence to isolate Taiwan diplomatically. The annual Pacific Islands Forum (PIF), which kicked off this week in the Solomon Islands capital of Honiara, is typically a chance for the global community to engage on urgent issues the region faces, such as climate change, transnational crime, multiple health crises and tribal violence. Being dragged into a power play is a distraction.
Solomon Islands Prime Minister Jeremiah Manele, Beijing’s closest security ally in the region, announced that all partners, including the US, China and Taiwan, would be excluded. He claimed the decision was made in the forum’s best interests. In reality, even though China won’t attend officially, Beijing can continue its campaign to diminish Taiwan’s status.
China has rejected allegations that it has had a role to play in who attends. This isn’t the first time partners have been excluded. But the decision highlights how the Taiwan issue is slowly splintering the group.
Over the last few years, Beijing has made significant progress in getting Pacific Island nations to switch loyalties. From six diplomatic alliances in the region back in 2019, Taiwan now only has three left: The Marshall Islands, the Republic of Palau and Tuvalu.
The Pacific Islands are strategically vital to US security. They straddle key maritime trade routes and are situated in the significant second island chain. Rich in natural resources, these island nations make up more than 6% of the UN, providing a meaningful bloc in multilateral decisions.
Since 1989, countries from outside the region have attended the forum to help with development goals. In 1992, Taiwan was granted permission to be present. Only 11 nations and the Holy See recognize its status, so it’s a rare opportunity for the democratic island of 23 million people to be represented on the international stage. The PIF has provided a platform for those who support it to—however quietly—challenge Beijing’s claim to the territory.
China is working overtime to exclude the island from international organizations. It has also been successful in preventing it from joining the World Health Assembly, the decision-making body of the World Health Organization, even though Taiwan was lauded for its pandemic response.
Beijing’s use of economic leverage to convince nations to switch sides has been successful. Nearly three-quarters of countries now support the position that Taiwan is part of China, a study conducted by the Sydney-based think tank Lowy Institute notes. And 62% of UN member states have endorsed Beijing’s one-China principle, which asserts that Taiwan is an inalienable part of the People’s Republic of China.
Getting caught in the middle of this geopolitical minefield is costly. The Solomon Islands’ decision means the forum won’t have the opportunity to discuss the region’s most urgent needs with the international community. The Leaders’ Summit allows the 18 member states and territories, including New Zealand and Australia, to thrash out issues from the climate crisis to tuna treaty negotiations with the US. The exclusion of partners is a blow to one of the world’s most aid-dependent areas, where development assistance serves as a lifeline.
The division over Taiwan and China also risks fracturing Pacific unity. Tuvalu’s Prime Minister Feleti Teo openly threatened to withdraw from the summit in protest at the exclusions, calling them a distraction from tackling the urgent concerns unique to these islands, among them worrying levels of debt, malnutrition and high poverty rates.
Pacific leaders have been clear: they want trade, investment, and economic development. China is listening: Beijing has committed billions in infrastructure investments.
This generosity is hard to ignore. As China moves to expand its trade and investment footprint, the US and its allies will have to up their game to counter-balance that influence. Many smaller states hesitate to oppose Beijing, worried about the economic repercussions.
Australia, Washington’s key ally in the region, is stepping up. It’s the largest donor in the region, followed by China, which has surpassed the US in recent years. More investment would help, but also a reassurance that Pacific states will be supported in development and climate vulnerability goals with more than just elegant rhetoric.
The hard work must come from Pacific nations themselves. Their unity in the face of intensifying geopolitical rivalry is essential. Allowing it to be hijacked by other interests only risks delaying responses to urgent priorities. ©Bloomberg
The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.
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