As climate shocks rise, India plans new weather satellite to stabilize its green energy grid

The ministries of new and renewable energy and earth sciences are looking to develop a comprehensive weather prediction and analysis system to better project climate patterns that affect solar and wind output, three people familiar with the matter told Mint.

As renewable energy capacity rises, unpredictable weather, from sudden cloud cover to drop in wind speed, is causing grid congestion, power generation curtailments and penalties for power producers. Improved forecasting and a dedicated satellite could reduce these operational issues and the financial risks they create for developers and consumers.

The push comes amid increasing episodes of grid instability linked to unexpected weather patterns globally. In June, electricity withdrawn from India’s transmission network exceeded the available capacity, raising fears about the grid’s stability. The grid controller of India alerted discoms and gencos in the northern region to either lower withdrawal or ramp up generation.

In February, the national grid operator had asked all electricity companies to be alert and supply power to preserve the grid’s stability amid cloud cover.

Earlier this year, Spain and Portugal, which source 80% of their power from green sources, experienced nationwide blackouts.

Accurate weather forecasts are therefore key to a robust grid and stable power supply, experts said.

What is being proposed

“Work is underway for an enhanced system and the need for a new satellite is being looked at,” the person said.

The project also involves deploying more ground-based technologies, such as Doppler radars, which detect precipitation and measure wind speed and direction.

According to M. Ravichandran, secretary at the ministry of earth sciences, the planned satellite will allow the government to offer more accurate and customized weather services for the power sector, along with other sectors.

“In the near future, we will be in a position to offer more accurate and customised weather services to the ministry, once the new satellite is launched in 2028-29,” said Ravichandran.

Designing, manufacturing and launching a satellite in India typically costs about ₹900 crore.

Queries mailed to the ministry of new and renewable energy (MNRE) on Monday remained unanswered till press time.

Finer forecasting

“New technologies would come in handy, but an important aspect for more precise data is setting up more centres for weather data collection, with each operating in a smaller grid area to enable the generation of a better local forecast,” said Bhupinder Singh Bhalla, former MNRE secretary.

Private renewable energy developers also have their own robust data on weather patterns experienced at their plants. “Collation of their huge data along with that from government agencies like IMD (India Meteorological Department) would enable a bigger database for better analytics.”

Better projections may lower the outgo in terms of penalty for renewable energy developers. It may also lead to rationalizing of tariffs for consumers, said Sanjeev Aggarwal, founder and chairman, Hexa Climate Solutions said.

“A modern weather prediction system, coupled with standardized SLDC (state load dispatch centre) integration, will de-risk cash flows,” Aggarwal said.

The Central Electricity Regulatory Commission (CERC) had proposed stricter deviation norms for renewable power generators last month, in line with those for conventional energy producers. The draft seeks to narrow the allowable deviation range for solar and wind projects.

Under the framework, green power developers must submit an estimated power generation quantum for different time segments within the 24 hours, in advance. Deviation from the estimate by a certain range may attract a penalty. The allowed limits of deviation within which penalties are not charged are lower in solar compared to wind, as the latter is more unpredictable.

Utilities paid around ₹6,255 crore as penalties during the 12 months ended August 2025, according to data from Grid Controller of India Ltd.

Looking ahead

Green power developers have started investing in battery energy storage systems to store power in case of higher than required and anticipated generation. Companies are also investing in historical data to understand weather patterns.

Speaking at the Mint Sustainability Summit 2025 in September, union minister for new and renewable energy Pralhad Joshi said that India is working towards a more accurate weather forecasting system that would help ensure reliable renewable power supply and electricity grid stability.

India currently has 130 GW of solar and 54 GW of wind capacity. By 2030, these are expected to rise to 280 GW and 140 GW, respectively, as part of the country’s 500 GW non-fossil capacity target.

Improving generation forecasting from renewable projects through better weather models has been a top-of-mind issue for most power producers, said Bhaskar Rakshit, partner at global management consulting firm Kearney.