A new government in Dhaka, a new equation for India

The polls, held on 12 February – the first since the ouster of then prime minister Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 – recorded about 60% voter turnout, another significant marker of public participation.

The result carries added political weight because BNP leader Tarique Rahman, son of Begum Khaleda Zia (who died on 30 December 2025) and military leader Ziaur Rahman, returned home only in December 2025 after 17 years of self-imposed exile.

The verdict from voters is unambiguous. They opted for an alternative to Hasina while stopping short of handing power to the right-wing Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI). The JeI nevertheless secured 77 seats, the largest tally in its history. The party formed by students who played a key role in Hasina’s ouster won relatively few seats and contested in coalition with the JeI. It is worth recalling that the JeI had opposed Bangladesh’s independence from Pakistan and fought alongside Pakistani forces during the 1971 Liberation War.

Overall, the polls were well organized, with no complaints of malpractice, a notable achievement for the Bangladeshi authorities.

Another significant development was the referendum held alongside the elections. Nearly 70% of voters supported proposals for major constitutional changes, including granting greater powers to the president rather than concentrating authority in the hands of the prime minister.

Proposed reforms also include transforming the Jatiya Sansad into a bicameral legislature, with two houses similar to India’s Lok Sabha and Rajya Sabha. The outcome signals a public demand for deeper institutional change and a governance structure that diffuses power.

Describing the February 2026 elections as pivotal or pathbreaking is therefore not hyperbole. Many voters belong to generations with little lived memory of 1971 and its defining political legacy. Compounding this shift, the Awami League – the party that led Bangladesh to independence – was barred from contesting. Taken together, these factors make the elections a clear milestone in Bangladesh’s political evolution.

India recalibrates

What, then, does this mean for India?

It means a fresh start with Bangladesh.

During Hasina’s tenure, India maintained limited engagement with the opposition, largely to avoid unsettling her government. New Delhi’s hands-off approach, refraining from criticism and allowing Hasina to manage domestic politics, led parties such as the BNP to view India’s support for her as unequivocal.

A tentative reset began last month when External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar met Rahman in Dhaka while attending Khaleda Zia’s funeral. The meeting is said to have gone well, with Rahman stating that whatever differences may arise, both sides should remain engaged. Jaishankar is said to have responded positively to suggestions for economic cooperation.

On 13 February, Prime Minister Narendra Modi spoke to Rahman.

“Delighted to speak with Tarique Rahman. I congratulated him on the remarkable victory in the Bangladesh elections. I conveyed my best wishes and support in his endeavour to fulfil the aspirations of the people of Bangladesh. As two close neighbours with deep-rooted historical and cultural ties, I reaffirmed India’s continued commitment to the peace, progress, and prosperity of both our peoples,” Modi later posted on X.com.

It is a constructive beginning, but India will need to build carefully on this foundation. One priority should be deeper engagement with Bangladesh’s Gen Z and younger demographics across society.

The JeI’s 77 seats ensure Rahman will face sustained political pressure. Protests are likely if the party’s expectations are not met. Rahman will need to establish credibility quickly. The economy is priority but so will be gestures, statements that show him as not too close to India. And this includes demanding the extradition of Hasina from India.

New Delhi, for its part, will need patience and restraint, particularly as elections approach in West Bengal and Assam. With a shared border exceeding 4,000 kilometres, deep linguistic and cultural ties, and Bangladesh’s central role in India’s trans-boundary connectivity initiatives toward Southeast Asia, the relationship is too consequential to allow grievances to harden. India will have to manage ties with care, especially as China and Pakistan already seek greater influence.

Pakistan turmoil

Speaking of Pakistan, reports suggest that former prime minister Imran Khan has been left almost blind in one eye, retaining only 15% vision due to a blood clot that allegedly went untreated.

Khan, who served as prime minister between 2018 and 2022, was detained in multiple corruption cases in 2023 and has remained in jail since. A seven-page report prepared by his lawyer Salman Safdar and submitted to court accuses jail authorities of systematically denying healthcare beginning in late 2025.

According to the report, Khan had perfect vision in both eyes until October 2025 but began reporting “persistent blurred and hazy vision” to prison authorities. The complaints were allegedly ignored for months, and he received only eye drops that “failed to improve his condition.” A specialist physician was summoned only in January 2026, by which time the damage was largely irreversible. The report states that he has been left with just 15% vision in his right eye, fuelling speculation that the neglect was deliberate, leaving him alive but politically incapacitated and unable to challenge the civil and military leadership.

Japan ripples

Moving to another prime minister — Japan’s Sanae Takaichi.

Takaichi made history when her Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) secured nearly 70% of seats in parliament’s powerful lower house, winning 316 seats in the 465-member chamber, the party’s strongest performance since its founding in 1955. When she called snap elections last month, just three months after becoming Japan’s first woman prime minister, many saw it as a gamble. The 9 February result proved otherwise.

The victory was especially notable because even her mentor, former prime minister Shinzo Abe, had not achieved such a margin.

While much of the world welcomed the outcome, neighbouring China did not. Takaichi is widely viewed as Abe’s right-wing protégé and shares his “hard-nosed” foreign policy stance, particularly toward China and Taiwan.

On 7 November 2025, she told parliament that if Beijing imposed a military blockade around Taiwan, then “no matter how you think about it, it could constitute a survival-threatening situation (for Japan).” The remark was interpreted as signalling possible Japanese military involvement. China reacted sharply, accusing Japan of crossing a “red line,” imposing economic pressure and pursuing diplomatic isolation until US intervention helped ease tensions.

In her second term, the economy will be her foremost priority. She has outlined plans for significantly higher fiscal spending to address cost-of-living pressures and revive growth through strategic sectors. A stronger Japanese economy would reinforce the emergence of a multipolar Asia, and a multipolar world. Hopefully, India will look to host her soon.

Elizabeth Roche is Associate Professor, O.P Jindal Global University, Haryana.