A promising May has gone sour for airlines in India

As May comes to an end with the onset of an early monsoon, it is a month that has gone sour for the airline industry in India. The Indian domestic aviation had an unprecedented February, as the once-in-a-lifetime Maha Kumbh spurred traffic to Prayagraj with most airlines cashing in on the opportunity, even as it meant facing the ire of the public.

The high fares have been in the news more frequently now than ever. The issue was raised in Parliament and also in front of the parliamentary committee with concerns being raised on affordability for the common man. As the exam season came to an end and stock markets fluctuated between extreme turbulence and growth, Indian domestic aviation was staring at the best-ever summer in history.

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However, the terrorist attack at Pahalgam on April 22 changed the whole equation. Data shared by Cirium, an aviation analytics company, exclusively for this article shows that airlines are planning to operate 23,216 weekly departures this May, offering 39,90,579 seats each week. This would have been truly past pandemic with 16 per cent more departures planned in May 2025 compared to May 2019, the last full year of operations before the pandemic hit.

Days leading up to the beginning of Operation Sindoor and days after the stop of action have seen passengers stay away from flights due to the uncertainty of the situation and the possibility of the escalation of hostilities. Moreover, one-fifth of the airports were out of operation for civilian flights as a precautionary measure. This led to average flights per day dropping in the 200-300 range for the early part of the month, with an impact ranging in the 4,200-4,550 flights in May.

Where was the new capacity being deployed?

In terms of frequencies, the maximum capacity is being increased between Chennai-Madurai, Hyderabad-Varanasi, Chennai-Pune, Bengaluru-Patna and Hyderabad-Kochi. Mumbai-Bengaluru, Delhi-Goa Dabolim, Mumbai-Jaipur, Mumbai-Goa Mopa and Delhi-Lucknow are the routes which are losing maximum frequencies as compared to last May. Both Jaipur and Lucknow are due for runway works, leading to long hours of closure for the airports.

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The action was shifting from Prayagraj to Srinagar, where capacity was being added from Ahmedabad, Mumbai, Bengaluru, Hyderabad and Kolkata. For the first time in history, Srinagar was getting ready to handle 50 domestic departures a day and over 350 domestic departures a week. This, along with flights to other popular summer destinations like Bagdogra and Dehradun, which are gateways to hill destinations, were being added by airlines. As passengers moved from one destination to another, there was limited scope to add flights at the last minute to other destinations.

What happened?

The events of April 22, and the Indian tri-services response in the form of Operation Sindoor, saw passengers cancel their plans and over 20 airports being closed for services for a handful of days, taking its toll on the tourism industry. While last year, the holiday quarter was impacted by general elections and heat wave conditions, this year it was different. A traditionally good month saw sharp cuts until over the mid of the month recovery, with the 4.9 lakh passengers per day being breached only towards the last week of May. There has been a lull in fares and also the passenger numbers over the last few weeks. This has also meant that there are no complaints about high fares.

Tail note

Airlines blamed last May for being impacted by the long general elections in the country. This May, it was the unfortunate events of April which led to an impact. The school holidays in India are scattered. The northern part sees holidays in June, while the western and southern parts start and end early. As things normalise, will last-minute travel pick up in June?

Airlines would be hoping that it does. Cirium data suggests that June is seeing a drop of about 2 per cent departures over May and tapers down towards the end of the month as the industry enters the leanest season, which is the July-September quarter. In all probability, Q1-FY26 has been a dud quarter and airlines would hope for a better year ahead.