Benjamin Netanyahu’s fate hangs in balance as Israel exit polls show no clear winner, Opposition catching up
Israel’s parliamentary election has produced an uncertain political picture, with exit polls indicating that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud party could emerge as the largest single party, while the opposition bloc led by former military chief Gadi Eisenkot is projected to secure more seats than the ruling coalition.
Projections released by three major broadcasters, Channel 13, Channel 12 and public broadcaster Kan, on Tuesday put Netanyahu’s coalition at around 50 seats in the 120-member Knesset, well below the 61 required for a parliamentary majority. The opposition bloc is projected to win 52-53 seats, while Arab-led parties are expected to secure 17-18 seats.
According to the Central Elections Committee, voter turnout reached 77.7 per cent, up 7.1 percentage points from the 2022 election and the highest level since 1999.
However, a separate exit poll by i24NEWS offered a more favourable outlook for Netanyahu, projecting 55 seats for his bloc against 49 for Eisenkot’s camp, with Arab-led parties expected to win 16 seats. The differing estimates suggest that neither side has a clear path to forming a government, potentially setting the stage for prolonged coalition negotiations.
Exit polls are preliminary estimates and may differ from the final results once the counting process is complete.
Netanyahu’s Likud leads among individual parties
The three major broadcasters projected Likud to remain Israel’s largest individual party, although Eisenkot’s centrist Yashar party is expected to mount a strong challenge.
Channel 13 projected 25 seats for Likud and 23 for Yashar, while Channel 12 estimated 24 seats for Likud and 22 for Yashar. Kan’s exit poll put Likud at 25 seats and Yashar at 21. The i24NEWS projection gave Likud 27 seats and Yashar 20.
Although Likud is expected to lead among individual parties, the broader balance of seats could favour the opposition, depending on the final results and the ability of political parties to negotiate coalition agreements.
Arab-led parties could play decisive role
Arab-led parties are projected to perform strongly, potentially increasing their influence in post-election negotiations. Although these parties oppose Netanyahu, they are not formally part of the main Jewish-led opposition bloc.
Channel 13 and Kan projected a combined 17 seats for Arab-led parties, while Channel 12 estimated their total at 18. The Joint List is projected to win 10 seats in the Channel 13 and Kan polls and 11 in Channel 12’s estimate. The Islamist Ra’am party is expected to secure seven seats across all three projections.
Their support from outside a governing coalition, or their decision to abstain in a confidence vote, could influence whether the opposition can establish a minority government. However, both Netanyahu and Eisenkot have ruled out a formal partnership with Arab-led parties.
Other opposition groups are also expected to win a significant share of seats. Naftali Bennett’s B’Yachad alliance is projected to secure 14 seats in the Channel 13 and Kan polls and 12 in Channel 12’s estimate. The left-leaning Democrats, led by Yair Golan, are projected to win nine seats in the Channel 12 and Channel 13 polls and 10 in Kan’s projection.
Meanwhile, Netanyahu’s Likud party, together with its far-right and ultra-Orthodox allies, is projected to fall well short of the majority required to govern.
Coalition talks next?
The exit-poll figures suggest that Netanyahu may struggle to assemble a viable governing majority in the immediate aftermath of the election.
Rather than risk an unsuccessful attempt to form a government, he could allow the opposition to try to build a coalition and wait for internal disagreements to undermine its efforts. Such a scenario could eventually lead to another election, giving Netanyahu an opportunity to rebuild support, although it would not guarantee his return to power.
A national unity government involving Netanyahu and Eisenkot also appears unlikely. Relations between the two leaders remain strained, and Eisenkot has publicly opposed partnering with Netanyahu. Although the possibility of a unity arrangement has been discussed amid the uncertain result, differences over leadership and policy could make an agreement difficult.
Following the close of polling, Eisenkot claimed victory, saying the public had rejected the Netanyahu government.
“The public has spoken, it has fired the Netanyahu government,” he said in a post on X. He added that his party would work with its political partners to bridge their differences and seek to form a government.
Gideon Sa’ar, a political ally of Netanyahu, cautioned against interpreting the opposition’s projected lead as a decisive victory. “The celebrations on the left are premature,” he said in a post on X, arguing that Likud remained Israel’s largest party.
What comes next?
The Central Elections Committee has begun counting the ballots, with the final count expected by October 30 and official results scheduled for publication on November 4.
Under Israel’s proportional representation system, voters elect party lists, and the party that wins the most seats does not automatically gain the right to form the government.
After the official results are published, President Isaac Herzog will consult political factions and nominate the lawmaker he believes has the strongest chance of forming a government. The nominee will have up to 42 days to assemble a coalition supported by at least 61 lawmakers.
If the first nominee fails, another lawmaker may be given an opportunity to form a government. Should all attempts prove unsuccessful, Israel could be forced into another election, with the outgoing government remaining in a caretaker capacity in the meantime.
With inputs from AP
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