Is Congress facing a ‘Yediyurappa effect’?
The controversy surrounding a purported sting video linked to former Karnataka Chief Minister Siddaramaiah has snowballed into a political crisis, with Congress leaders fearing that the fallout could haunt the party in the 2028 Assembly elections.
What began as whispers in the corridors of Vidhana Soudha has evolved into allegations of a conspiracy to sideline the two-time Chief Minister and realign political loyalties in the state.
Within the Congress, the controversy has drawn parallels with the “Yediyurappa effect” — a reference to the BJP’s electoral setbacks in Karnataka in 2013 and 2023, which some party leaders have attributed, in part, to the perceived sidelining of former Chief Minister B S Yediyurappa.
Congress leaders fear that alienating Siddaramaiah, who continues to wield considerable influence in state politics, could have similar consequences for the party.
“Keeping Siddaramaiah happy, ultimately, will be key for the party in 2028. He still commands support from multiple communities,” a senior minister in the D K Shivakumar-led Cabinet had said during last month’s special session, when rumours of the sting video first surfaced.
The controversy has already sent ripples through the ruling Congress, with leaders privately acknowledging that it could upset the delicate balance between the Siddaramaiah and Shivakumar camps. The balance had been central to the party’s rise to power in 2023 and the stability of its government amid the leadership transition.
Jarkiholi meet adds to buzz
Last week, even as Siddaramaiah secured an injunction restraining the circulation and broadcast of the purported sting video, a significant development was BJP MLA Ramesh Jarkiholi’s meeting with the former CM in Mysuru.
Jarkiholi, who was with the Congress before joining the BJP in 2019, had himself been embroiled in a sting video controversy in 2021, which led to his resignation as Water Resources minister in the then BJP government. He had accused Shivakumar of being the “key conspirator” behind the operation, alleging that it was intended to end his political career.
“Siddaramaiah is our leader, no matter which party he is in,” Jarkiholi said after the meeting.
During the 2019 political crisis, when Jarkiholi and nine other Congress MLAs defected to the BJP as part of “Operation Lotus”, Siddaramaiah’s critics had accused him of doing little to prevent the defections. Some had even alleged that he encouraged them.
The latest controversy has put the Congress on the defensive. Karnataka Congress chief B K Hariprasad invoked the Hindi proverb “hamam mein sab nange hain” (everyone is naked in a bathhouse) to criticise the practice of using alleged sting operations to target political opponents.
“If we indulge in such mudslinging, then everyone is in it. It is not a good development in politics,” he told reporters.
JD(S) steps up attack
The row has provided fresh ammunition to the JD(S), with Union Minister H D Kumaraswamy leading the Opposition’s attack. Kumaraswamy has sought to hold Shivakumar responsible for the controversy and urged Siddaramaiah to speak out against what he described as an attempt to defame the former CM.
On Sunday, Kumaraswamy alleged that more than 100 police officers in Karnataka had been trapped in sting operations. He also referred to an earlier statement by Congress MLA K N Rajanna, who had told the Assembly in March last year that more than 48 legislators had fallen victim to a “factory” conducting sting operations.
Shivakumar, who has faced questions over the controversy, has maintained that “time will answer”. He has otherwise avoided commenting on the matter, citing the injunction secured by Siddaramaiah.
Amid the continuing speculation, the CM met Siddaramaiah at the latter’s residence on Friday evening. The meeting lasted about an hour.
‘Not new in state politics’
A senior Congress leader said attempts to discredit political figures were not new to Karnataka, pointing to former CMs R Gundu Rao, Ramakrishna Hegde and S M Krishna, among others, who had faced similar controversies.
“Such things are common in Karnataka politics. If you compile a list of politicians who have got an injunction over such incidents, it will exceed 100 names,” the leader said.
Another Congress insider said Siddaramaiah was deeply upset by the latest controversy.
“This is the second time he is being targeted in the last three years. The first was accusations of irregularities at the Mysuru Urban Development Authority (MUDA), from which he came out clean. The second is this,” the leader said, warning that antagonising the former CM could prove politically costly for the party.
The mass leader effect
The leader also pointed to the statewide appeal of Siddaramaiah and Yediyurappa, describing them as two of the few politicians in Karnataka with a broad political base across regions and communities.
The BJP’s performance in the 2013 and 2023 Assembly elections, the leader argued, illustrated the risks of sidelining a popular leader such as Yediyurappa. The Congress, too, has faced electoral consequences after alienating influential leaders, the insider said.
When Veerendra Patil was removed as CM in 1990, the Congress suffered a backlash among sections of the Lingayat community, the leader recalled. While the Kuruba community, to which Siddaramaiah belongs, has gradually come to terms with his stepping down as CM, its response to the sting controversy remains uncertain, the leader added.
