The Centre’s decision to conduct the enumeration phase of Census 2027 in Punjab from December 1 to January 4, 2027, has effectively ended speculation that the Assembly elections could be advanced to November this year.
The timing of the announcement is significant as the November poll theory was triggered by Aam Aadmi Party (AAP) national convenor Arvind Kejriwal himself in June. He had told party workers that he was informed Punjab would go to polls in November instead of February and asked workers to begin preparations. The term of the Punjab Assembly ends on March 16, 2027.
Kejriwal’s remarks triggered political activity across the state, with parties having to factor in the possibility of an election barely months away. The latest Census schedule gives parties additional time before the Assembly completes its five-year term.
The extra four months are now being viewed differently by different parties.
For the Opposition, the immediate relief is that it can ease the pace of election preparations. Parties that had begun preparing for an early poll now have more time for organisational work, candidate selection and campaign planning.
Can Congress quell dissent?
The Congress believes it can use the additional time to recover political ground it feels it lost amid internal differences. Leader of the Opposition in the Punjab Assembly Partap Singh Bajwa said the extended period would “basically favour the Congress”, as the time lost in “squabbles” could now be recovered.
The BJP, meanwhile, gets more time to consolidate its organisation in Punjab. The party has been seeking to expand beyond the two Assembly seats it won in 2022, after drawing a blank in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The additional time also gives it greater space to work out its electoral strategy following its break and possible patch up with the Shiromani Akali Dal (SAD).
Advantage BJP, SAD?
Privately, however, parties acknowledge that the extra time could also prove useful to the BJP and SAD if they eventually decide to revive their alliance. An early election would have left little room for negotiations over seat-sharing, organisational arrangements and the larger question of who would be the “elder brother”.
The BJP, however, is publicly ruling out any such arrangement for now. State BJP president Kewal Singh Dhillon said the party was unfazed by the timing of the election and would contest all 117 Assembly seats.
“We will do well. No matter when the election is. We will contest all 117 seats,” he said. Dhillon also argued that the additional time could work against the AAP rather than the Opposition. “The AAP will keep getting exposed,” he said, claiming that people in villages were increasingly willing to speak out against the ruling party.
“I go to villages and they say, wait for the code of conduct, we will come out openly against them,” he said.
The BJP leader also pointed to growing discontent among government employees, saying the party had witnessed protests against the government at around 600 places.
“Look at the employees. They showered flowers on (Chief Minister) Bhagwant Mann when he came to the secretariat for the first time. Now, they are shouting slogans (against him),” he said.
The ruling AAP, on the other hand, now has more time to defend its record in government.
The Enforcement Directorate (ED) investigations involving different individuals have kept the government under scrutiny, while allegations of links to the Chief Minister’s Office have added to the political pressure. The Mohanjit Singh case, in which police have been accused of torturing him after he showed a black flag to Mann, has raised questions over alleged police excesses.
The recent death of Gulzar Singh of Dirba, who allegedly consumed Celphos, has opened another political front. Before his death, Gulzar Singh had allegedly levelled allegations of pressure and named Finance Minister Harpal Singh Cheema.
Bajwa, meanwhile, said the Opposition’s advantage would depend on the AAP continuing to face scrutiny over issues including the “judicial system”, corruption cases, employees and alleged “goondagardi”. Referring to the controversies, he said, “These are going to increase by the end of the day.”
He also alleged that the government had acquired the image of a “police state” and cited power cuts, coal shortages, alleged administrative disorder and ED raids as issues that, he claimed, were weakening the AAP government.
AAP state president and Cabinet minister Aman Arora said the timing of the election would not alter the party’s position. “It does not matter when the elections are. We have our work behind us. We will go to the polls with that. The controversies are avoidable,” he said.
