Trump’s global shake-up could spell climate opportunities for India

The scale and speed with which Donald Trump’s executive orders have been implemented have left the world gasping and researchers scrambling to figure out their implications for climate progress. The need to respond to a flurry of US policy announcements—with their significant impact on economic growth rates globally—has distracted governments across the world from focusing on their own efforts towards climate and sustainable development goals (SDGs).

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The response of the business sector, however, is likely to be more nuanced. A number of reports have emerged lately on the steep decline in mentions of ‘climate’ and ‘sustainability’ in the earnings calls of large corporations. Bloomberg reported that on average, companies are talking about the environment 76% less than they were three years ago. Others have, however, argued that climate and sustainability responses are strategic in nature and a quietening down on such topics in quarterly-earning calls may merely reflect political prudence under the circumstances that prevail.

Acknowledging that market instability is forcing boards to focus more on financial health in the short term, several experts have also recognized the growing challenges of mitigative action now that low-hanging fruit have been picked—a combination of factors are likely slowing the climate response of the corporate sector, but it is not necessarily reversing it.

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PwC, in its annual State of Decarbonisation report, points out that not only is the count of companies making climate commitments growing (up ninefold over the last five years through 2024), but that 37% of companies are increasing their ambitions while only 16% are getting less aggressive.

It is heartening to also see that corporate commitments to climate and sustainability efforts are withstanding leadership transitions and are focused on long-term value creation through significant research and development initiatives.

Underlying the climate-action resilience of corporates is probably the huge success witnessed by the renewable energy industry, which is irreversible. A recent report from the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) highlights that renewables made up 92% of all power capacity additions globally in 2024, of which solar accounted for three-quarters, although 64% of the increase was in China.

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Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that global investment in low-carbon energy resources has crossed $2 trillion and the International Energy Agency has identified 18 “Races to Firsts” demonstration challenges—key milestones mostly achievable within around five years with sustained policy support—for important emerging energy technologies to track and encourage progress.

While all this is very encouraging, and also explains the ‘irreversibility’ of climate related transformations, the world still has a long way to go before its targets are met.

This state of play and the large import tariffs imposed by the Trump administration could open up opportunities for others to create thriving markets for climate-friendly resources, products and services.

China, in India’s vicinity, is undoubtedly a global leader in the energy transition underway. It has also been targeted by the Trump administration with the highest tariffs among major US trading partners. It has the lion’s share of critical minerals, is an innovation powerhouse, manufactures clean-tech products at highly competitive rates and is strategically well placed to support global clean-energy goals.

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India has ambitious goals on renewable energy, including hydrogen and small modular reactor-based nuclear power. We have done well in establishing a robust renewable energy industry and have great ambitions on electric vehicles.

No doubt, like the rest of the world, we still have a long way to go. India’s renewable-energy push would surely help meet our long-term climate goals. More immediately, it would also help us deal with the intolerable air pollution problem becoming all-pervasive in major cities and the huge impact it is having on human health.

A strategic partnership with China that combines its cutting-edge artificial intelligence tools with the potential of a market the size of India’s could provide the world with a renewed impetus to meet our combined climate goals. Other regions too are seeking to realign their partnerships. So a new global order could emerge out of this instability, prodded along by other drivers such as ageing populations.

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How will India’s government respond to geopolitical realignments? In relative terms, we have emerged less scathed than many other countries from the ongoing tariff war. But can we change the level of our game quickly enough to exploit emerging opportunities? Indian industry has been signalling its readiness to compete on manufacturing if the government eases its path, even as Indian entrepreneurship retains its spark. Infosys co-founder Nandan Nilekani’s interest in clean energy also augurs well.

Amid an unprecedented global shake-out, can India emerge a winner?

The author is an independent expert on climate change and clean energy.