Pranjul Bhandari: Temperature trends tell us more about future food inflation than rainfall levels do
One, the probability of high temperatures is stronger than the probability of low rains. For instance, in the 2019-20 and 2024-25 El Niño years, rains were strong despite the phenomenon. But for both these years, temperatures shot up above normal levels. Two, how much temperatures rise during El Niño years is growing. And this is where the worry lies. An El Niño can be a lot more hurtful now than in the past.
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