Will round two of US-Iran war trigger a bigger global shock? Here’s what you need to know | World

The breakdown of the Pakistani-mediated ceasefire and the outbreak of intense, renewed fighting between Washington and Tehran are threatening to unleash an unprecedented shock on the global economy. Unlike the initial phase of the war in February – which focused on leadership decapitation and targeted military assets – round two is transitioning into an unmediated war of attrition directly involving strikes on critical infrastructure and retaliatory barrages across Gulf Arab nations

With Iran digging in on its complete closure of the strategic Strait of Hormuz and the US enforcing a rigid naval counter-blockade, observers speculate that a prolonged disruption to the world’s primary energy transit corridor will rapidly push inflation past current limits, shatter global equities, and trigger a systemic fuel crisis that heavily stings import dependent consumer economies worldwide.

Hormuz blockade: Attack on ships raises questions on America’s intent

The execution of a rigid maritime blockade in international waters has transformed the vital shipping lanes flanking the Omani coast into a hazardous zone for commercial mariners, resulting in back-to-back missile strikes on three merchant vessels and the tragic loss of Indian crew members.

While Washington maintains that these precision aerial interventions are designed solely to mechanically disable non-compliant traffic bound for sanctioned destinations by targeting engine compartments, the lethal fallout close to neutral ports has sparked a severe diplomatic rift.

This heavy handed enforcement strategy prompts immediate scrutiny regarding the legal boundaries of policing global trade routes, the justification for hitting un-sanctioned hulls, and the failure to protect innocent seafaring lives caught in geopolitical crosswinds.

Big disagreements on the way of a quick peace deal

Earlier this week, Trump suggested that an agreement with Iran could be close – but the exchanges of fire have called that into question, and big differences remain. The US wants to see Iran give up its stockpile of highly enriched uranium, which is a short technical step from weapons-grade levels.

Iran is refusing to give up the uranium and demanding relief from sanctions. It also wants the release of frozen assets even before a final agreement is in place, something Trump rejected.

Iran has insisted that any deal to end the war must also end fighting between its ally Hezbollah and Israel. But Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu appears intent on pursuing his goal of destroying the militant group.

A Qatari diplomatic delegation, negotiating in coordination with the US, left Tehran on Thursday morning after holding talks, according to an official with knowledge of the team who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the mediation. Pakistan, meanwhile, expressed deep concern over rising tensions and urged both Iran and the US to adhere to the ceasefire.

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