This Chinese jewelry stock is attractive despite the swings in gold prices
Chinese jewelry company Laopu Gold still has significant upside, despite recent volatility in prices of the precious metal, analysts said. In the last two years, Hong Kong-listed Laopu has become an upstart in China’s luxury scene , drawing local crowds — and reportedly LVMH Chair Bernard Arnault — for its artisanal take on gold jewelry. Laopu’s popularity surged last year, with the stock posting a total return of more than 160%, as gold prices soared. But the precious metal has tumbled about 20% from a high in January, to hit a four-month low of $4,097.99 on March 23 . The jewelry company’s stock is only 0.16% lower year to date, after Laopu disclosed on March 23 that first-quarter net profit was at least 3.6 billion yuan (roughly $520.8 million). “Laopu is our top pick in the China consumer sector,” JPMorgan analysts said in a report Wednesday, noting the company’s “strategic resilience amid current gold market volatility.” “We see Laopu as best positioned to benefit from experience-led growth with a systematic approach (disciplined store count, a direct to consumer [DTC] model and differentiated service quality upheld by a highly selective/trained team),” the analysts added. They also noted Laopu’s 17 years of experience in pricing products, even when gold is in a downturn, although both the jeweler and JPMorgan expect gold prices will remain elevated this year. JPMorgan rates the stock overweight, with a price target of 1,296 Hong Kong dollars (about $165.63). That’s more than two times Laopu’s close Friday of 617 HKD. Building a following The Beijing-based Chinese jewelry company has built a following not just with its unique, locally inspired designs, but also with regular product price hikes and limited discounts, reinforcing a concept of investment pieces. Laopu also typically only opens stores in the highest-end malls in China. “While gold prices retracted from its peak of USD5,500/oz on 29 Jan 2026 to USD4,500/oz on 23 March, Laopu conducted a price hike on 28 Feb when gold price was USD5,200,” HSBC analysts pointed out in a March 24 report. “We believe Laopu can partially decouple from gold price cyclicality through branding and product innovations,” the HSBC analysts said. While they rate the stock a buy, they lowered their price target on Laopu to 950 HKD, from 1,023.20 HKD previously, due largely to higher costs from gold price risks. Chinese consumers have generally become more price-conscious since the pandemic. While Western luxury brands have sought to revamp their local strategies , Laopu represents new Chinese brands that are vying for the same market. According to a Rothschild forecast, Laopu’s 2025 sales were estimated to have surpassed Richemont’s jewelry sales in China last year, including those of Cartier. Brand recognition vs. gold prices “Brand Power to Drive Re rating Beyond Gold,” Morgan Stanley analysts said in a March 24 report about Laopu, which they rate overweight with a price target of 1,010 HKD. “If demand can stay consistently strong in a declining gold price environment for 1-2 quarters, it could be the case that Laopu proves itself a brand rather than a gold proxy, and the stock could re-rate meaningfully,” the analysts said. They pointed out that repeat purchases accounted for 38% of Laopu’s sales in 2025, with an even higher ratio in the first quarter of 2026, while per capita spending increased to 85,000 yuan last year, up from 50,000 yuan in 2024. However, Bank of America Securities downgraded Laopu to neutral from buy on March 26 given gold price volatility and slower economic growth. “We believe rising gold prices over the past two years were one of the key drivers of gold/jewelry stocks, as gold demand was helped by the perception of gold as a good store of value,” the analysts said. Their lowered price target on Laopu is 774 HKD, which still reflects 25% upside from Friday’s close. —CNBC’s Michael Bloom contributed to this report.
Post Comment