Longest-ever US govt shutdown ends soon? Senate’s latest move and what Trump says

Has the US finally made progress in resolving its historic, 40-day federal government shutdown? On Sunday, a group of Democrats agreed to move forward without a guaranteed extension of healthcare subsidies, as the Senate voted 60–40 in a test vote to advance compromise legislation aimed at refunding the Donald Trump 2.0 administration, according to foreign media reports.

The US government shut down on October 1 after lawmakers failed to agree on a budget extension before the end of the fiscal year on September 30.

In fact, the second-longest American federal government shutdown was during Trump’s first term, in 2018.

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The move lifted optimism across markets amid the longest-ever US government shutdown, which has affected federal employees, delayed food assistance, and disrupted flights due to air traffic control staffing shortages. The advancement of the House-passed bill in a procedural vote means that the government could now be funded until January 30. However, analysts cautioned that while the development offers short-term relief, it may not provide clear market direction until a more definitive resolution emerges.

Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) futures jumped as much as 260 points — or 0.6 per cent to — 47,345 on Monday morning (India time), while S&P 500 futures gained 53.5 points — or 0.8 per cent — to an intraday high of 6,807.3. Asian shares staged strong moves, with MSCI’s broadest index of Asia Pacific shares outside Japan soaring as much as 1.4 per cent, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 benchmark jumped 1.3 per cent at its intraday high.

Back home, equity benchmarks Nifty and Sensex made a positive start to the day and were on track to close higher after three back-to-back sessions of losses.

If the Senate clears the amendments, the bill must then be approved by the House of Representatives and signed by the president. The process could reportedly take several days.

Democratic Senators Maggie Hassan and Jeanne Shaheen reportedly brokered the agreement, which came on the 40th day of the shutdown.

Trump has pushed for replacing subsidies under the Affordable Care Act (ACA) — which support health insurance marketplaces — with direct payments to individuals. These subsidies lie at the heart of the standoff. Republicans have said they are willing to revisit the issue only after government funding is restored.

Sunday’s agreement does not guarantee an extension of ACA subsidies, which have helped double enrollment to 24 million since being introduced in 2021.

On Sunday, Trump posted on Truth Social, calling the subsidies a “windfall for health insurance companies, and a DISASTER for the American people.”

“I stand ready to work with both parties to solve this problem once the government is open,” he added.

Here’s a quick take on what the ongoing shutdown has caused:

• Operations halted across key federal agencies, with no access to official data that policymakers and investors rely on to gauge economic health
• Data collection and publication halted by critical departments like Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis and Census Bureau
• High-frequency macroeconomic readings on nonfarm payrolls, jobless claims, inflation (CPI and PPI), factory orders, trade balance and retail sales not being released
• Uncertainty about key areas such as employment, inflation, consumer spending and business investment
• Several private-sector data points continue to be published but they rely heavily on government data inputs
• US Treasury Department continues to release limited financial data (borrowing and refunding reports, for instance)
• Officials and traders are forced to rely on incomplete or lagging indicators