Will Japan get past its pacific constitution and seize its chance to lead Asia’s security order?

Japans’s Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi is determined to convince Trump she’s serious about boosting the nation’s military capabilities. A protégé of the late Shinzo Abe—the original Trump whisperer—she’s eager to cultivate the same kind of personal rapport the former PM had with the US leader.

Ahead of their meeting in Tokyo on Tuesday, she announced Japan will spend 2% of GDP on defence by next spring, two years ahead of schedule. The government also plans to roll back defence export restrictions, build weapons factories and accelerate investment in the military.

The Trump administration has pushed European allies to boost defence spending to 5% of GDP and is making similar demands of its partners in Asia, including Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Getting out in front of that narrative shows that Tokyo is proactive, not reactive.

Japan is already facing significant security concerns in its own backyard, as the country’s 2025 Defense White Paper notes. China’s military modernization is accelerating, the People’s Liberation Army has increased exercises around Taiwan, North Korea’s army is getting more advanced, and Russia’s war in Ukraine is continuing to worry security chiefs in Tokyo.

This has convinced Tokyo it needs to strengthen capabilities and reinvigorate the defence industry, Sarah Soh, associate research fellow at the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies, said. “To do this comprehensively, Japan needs stability in leadership which it currently lacks,” she told me.

Takaichi faces a tough political test. She is Japan’s first female prime minister and leads a fragile coalition. Her hawkish stance plays well in America but risks blowback from China. To achieve her promises, her minority government needs cooperation from the opposition. Japan’s pacifist constitution continues to provoke debate. But public opinion is shifting. In 2024, 84% of respondents in a Yomiuri Shimbun poll said they felt the nation’s security was under threat, while 71% supported the strengthening of defence capabilities.

Takaichi, who has been in her role for just about a week, is seeing some initial success—a Nikkei newspaper poll showed approval ratings for her government touching 74%. But a lot is riding on how she handles Trump.

The American president came to Japan from Malaysia, where he attended the Association of Southeast Asian Nations leaders’ forum. He sealed trade deals with other Asian nations and presided over the signing of the Thailand-Cambodia peace agreement (how much peace was achieved is debatable). His team has also ironed out thorny details of a pact between Washington and Beijing ahead of a meeting between President Xi Jinping and Trump in South Korea later this week.

Public faith in the US is falling. An annual poll by Yomiuri Shimbun in June showed that only 22% of respondents somewhat or greatly trust Washington, the lowest figure since the poll was first conducted in 2000. According to an Asahi Shimbun survey, 77% do not think that the US would defend Japan in a crisis, despite being a treaty ally.

That means Tokyo must work on both the domestic and international fronts, and think beyond bullets and missiles and invest in areas such as cyber defence and electronic warfare. The nation’s Self-Defense Forces are facing serious challenges in recruitment, with only about 10,000 personnel hired in 2023—half of the quota of about 20,000.

Japan faces specific defence challenges from China. Tokyo is worried about the sustained presence of Beijing’s coast guard and naval ships around uninhabited islands in the East China Sea that Japan controls but China lays claim to. Leading military drills in contested waters rather than relying on the US to run them would be more effective.

Boosting coordination with other partners who share similar grievances could also help. Tokyo is already offering some support to small and middle powers, such as Australia, South Korea, India and the Philippines. It could cooperate further in their joint efforts to push back against Beijing’s influence in the Indo-Pacific. Takaichi could [have] also urged Trump to make clear the US position on Taiwan, amid concerns that he will go soft on China in order to reach a deal with Xi. [However, the leaders mutually agreed on the importance of peace along the Taiwan Strait].

Tokyo has a chance to show it is capable of providing a steady hand in a region that has long depended on American leadership. It shouldn’t waste it. ©Bloomberg

The author is a Bloomberg Opinion columnist covering Asia politics with a special focus on China.