Rice is running out of ground in a warming Kashmir

“I have not grown rice since 2003,” he says, eyes scanning his orchard. “We have faced back-to-back droughts. The rains do not come like they used to. Year after year, we waited, but the rainfall became scarce, and the canals that once nourished our fields ran dry. The limited irrigation we had was not enough to sustain a full paddy cycle.”

Across the Valley, rising temperatures, erratic rainfall, and failing irrigation systems are forcing a reckoning: Is rice still viable here?

The data suggests not. In 1996, Kashmir had about 163,000 hectares under paddy cultivation. By 2022–23, that figure had fallen to 129,000 hectares—a nearly 21% decline, official data shows.

Much of this loss is due to farmers shifting to alternatives like apples and vegetables—or selling out entirely. In Pulwama, once dotted with lush paddy fields, rows of young apple trees now dominate the view. Apples, farmers say, are not only more profitable but also less thirsty.

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Farewell to paddy

In Kashmir, rice isn’t just a crop—it’s a cultural foundation. But farmers like Mir are walking away from it, driven not by preference, but by survival.

In the southern district of Pulwama, paddy fields now stand abandoned or reworked as apple orchards. “Giving up rice was not a bold choice, but one forced by circumstances,” says Mir. “When we were cornered, switching to apples was the only option. Apples need less water and at least give us a chance to earn a livelihood.”

Just how stark is the difference?

According to Dr. Tasneem Mubarak, chief scientist (Agronomy) at SKUAST Kashmir, it takes about 2,500 litres of water to produce one kilogram of rice, while apples require significantly less.

Mohammad Ashraf Wani, a seasoned apple grower and former president of the Fruit Market Shopian, estimates that apples need only around 30 litres of water per kilogram.

It may seem counterintuitive for farmers in an area historically known for rice production to shift towards apples, but climate change has eroded paddy profitability, prompting many to adapt.

– Mohammad Yousuf Bhat, a farmer.

Former agriculture director Altaf Aijaz Andrabi agrees. “The Valley can no longer afford paddy—not ecologically, and not economically. Water scarcity, rising costs, and shrinking landholdings mean it’s time to shift to high-value, low-water crops like vegetables, maize, and sweet corn,” he says. “Farmers can’t be left to navigate this alone. The government needs to actively support this transition.”

The case for apples and vegetables

In nearby Kulgam’s Wanigund village, farmer Sajad Ahmad Wani has already made the leap.

“I have four kanals (around 0.2 hectares) and now grow almost everything: radish, brinjal, cucumber, carrot, lettuce, onions, potatoes,” he says. “Cucumbers, carrots, and radish sell like hotcakes to hotels and restaurants in the tourist areas of the Valley. If I was making ₹100,000 profit from paddy farming before, now my income has doubled to ₹200,000.”

Their motivations are practical, and increasingly urgent. 

Paddy farming requires consistent water supply through June and July. This year, Kashmir recorded its hottest June in decades, with Srinagar hitting 35.5°C on June 20—the highest in 20 years. Nights brought no relief: on June 25, the capital city registered a minimum of 25.0°C, the hottest June night in 134 years.

Across the Valley, canals ran dry, and paddy fields cracked under the heat.

“In June, when we transplant paddy, there were no rains at all, and the heatwave has only made things worse,” says Arshid Hussain Bhat, a fourth-generation farmer from Charsoo village in Awantipora. “The water level in the river Jhelum is so low that even the drought pumps we use to draw water are failing. Due to large-scale sand mining carried out in Kashmir over many years, riverbeds have been severely damaged, rendering traditional irrigation systems obsolete.”

Bhat, who cultivates paddy on 10 kanals of land, fears a total crop failure. “After transplanting ends by 21 June, timely rainfall is crucial. The paddy seedlings need to be kept soaked for at least 40 days so that fertilisers and herbicides can mix properly with water. That helps keep weeds and unwanted grass under control and prevents the fields from cracking. Without enough water, the paddy simply cannot grow.”

The long-term threat to Kashmir’s food security is clear. “Kashmir’s rice demand is around 900,000 quintals per year, while local production is around 500,000 quintals,” says Dr. Asif Bashir Shikari, senior scientist and associate professor at Sher-e-Kashmir University of Agricultural Sciences and Technology (SKUAST). “Even if we cannot achieve full self-sufficiency, sustaining what we have is crucial for food security.”

The shortfall is met through imports from rice-surplus states such as Punjab, Haryana, and Uttar Pradesh. Locally grown Kashmiri rice currently sells for around ₹4,000 per 100 kg in the open market.

In contrast, imported varieties, mainly distributed through the Department of Food, Civil Supplies & Consumer Affairs (FCSCA), are sold at subsidised rates of approximately ₹1,500 per 100 kg, although their actual market price is around ₹3,600. Under the public distribution system, families below the poverty line receive this rice free of cost, while others are entitled to 5 kilograms per family member at the subsidised rate of ₹80.

And rice, in Kashmir, is more than sustenance. It anchors Wazwan, the Valley’s iconic wedding feast. Every spiced delicacy is served atop a steaming bed of rice, without which the meal feels incomplete. Yet in Kulgam—once called the “rice bowl of Kashmir”—apple trees now dominate the landscape.

Farmer Mohammad Yousuf Bhat transitioned to apples in 1980, though he still grows rice on a portion of his land. “It may seem counterintuitive for farmers in an area historically known for rice production to shift towards apples, but climate change has eroded paddy profitability, prompting many to adapt,” he says. In his hamlet, Katrasoo, over 90% of farmers have made the switch.

But the shift isn’t just about climate. It’s about economics—and policy.

Apple orchards yield significantly higher returns, even if they come with their own risks.

Andrabi says: “If a farmer earns ₹15,000 from rice cultivation, he can earn around ₹180,000 from vegetables and ₹100,000 from a successful high-density apple orchard. Vegetables have the advantage of being short-duration crops, allowing for three harvests in a year. This means the land is used three times compared to the single annual harvest of rice or apples. Moreover, vegetable farming involves lower input costs, unlike apples which require high expenditure on pesticides and labour, or paddy, which demands excessive water.”

Climate change and survival pressure

According to SKUAST projections, rice production in the Valley will decline by 6.6% by 2040 and by nearly 29.1% by 2090 under a medium-emissions climate scenario.

Meanwhile, the economics of rice consumption have already worsened. Since the withdrawal of rice distribution schemes like the Pradhan Mantri Garib Kalyan Anna Yojana in 2022, the cost of local rice has nearly doubled—from ₹2,000–3,000 per 100 kg to ₹5,000–6,000. Poor families are now buying less rice or turning to cheaper alternatives.

While farmers are often blamed for abandoning rice, they point to deeper structural failures. “High-value rice varieties capable of selling for ₹500 a kilo have been created. While the scientific research and varieties exist, the marketing and commercial systems are lacking,” says Dr. Shikari.

He also notes that Kashmir’s irrigation system is glacier-dependent, unlike India’s monsoon-reliant plains. “As glaciers shrink and temperatures rise, the valley faces a serious challenge in sustaining its paddy fields,” he says.

A recent study mapped 122 glaciers in the Pir Panjal range and found that between 1980 and 2020, their area shrank by nearly 10 square kilometres—a key blow to irrigation security.

Farmers cite other hurdles: broken canals, lack of desilting, encroachments, and the fragmentation of farmland. Despite the challenges, some—like Arshid Bhat—refuse to give up on rice.

“Rice is going to become scarce in Kashmir, and when that happens, prices will rise sharply. Especially here, where rice is our staple, demand won’t disappear. We will have to sell apples or even our shops just to buy rice to fill our bellies,” he says.

Yet policy does little to discourage the conversion of farmland. Under the Holistic Agriculture Development Programme (HADP), farmers are eligible for subsidies up to 50% for apple-related investments—planting material, drip irrigation, trellis systems, and hail nets.

According to Andrabi, there is no specific scheme in place to support rice cultivation, as it no longer provides sufficient remuneration to farmers.

“Since rice is cheaply available in the market and requires large amounts of water, farmers are increasingly shifting towards high-density crops that offer better returns on smaller landholdings. With shrinking land availability and changing global agricultural dynamics, the focus is now on maximising income through intensive, space-efficient farming.”

Officials admit there’s a policy disconnect.

“We can educate farmers and provide training on the profitability of traditional agriculture but without cooperation from other departments, those efforts fall short,” says Qazi Shouqat, deputy director, Agriculture Department, Kashmir.

He notes that the revenue department issues construction permits for farmland while the horticulture department promotes orchard development—undermining preservation efforts.

The horticulture department denies encouraging such conversions.

“We cannot stop farmers from converting their paddy land into apple orchards,” says Mohammad Amin Bhat, a technical officer. “But farmers should understand that the apples grown on such land often have a shorter shelf life, inferior colour and texture, and are more susceptible to disease.”

Still, for many, the trade-off is worth it. And unless rice farming becomes economically and ecologically viable again, more will make the same choice.

“We need policies that support farmers not just in seed technology, but in marketing, branding, and mechanisation,” says Dr. Shikari. “If rice cultivation is made viable and visible, farmers will return to it.”

Dr. Shikari sees the issue differently. He believes the answer lies not in discouraging farmers, but in making rice farming more viable through systemic support. “We need policies that support farmers not just in seed technology, but in marketing, branding, and mechanisation. If rice cultivation is made viable and visible, farmers will return to it.”